European Sovereign Debt Crisis: Uncertain, Uncharted, and Certainly Unsettling

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Attach please find the most recent piece put together by GS's buy-side research team(Investment Strategy Group), now share with you just FYI.

Of particular interest is the second to last section “What is the Downside to Equities?”.  Inthis section using a variety of metrics,  a S&P level of 1000 to 1050seems like a reasonable downside level assuming a typical recession experience(though a recession is neither ISG’s nor GIR’s base case).  The market hasalready moved quickly towards these levels suggesting that a recession is alreadybeing increasingly priced in (I think that at current levels, a 2/3’s chanceof recession is priced in).   

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关键词：Sovereign certainly Uncertain European Certain Investment experience particular reasonable research

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GOOOOOOOOD JOB

Of course the viewpoints are extraordinarily rich. The keys concerns of market participants revolve around policy responses, and we need policy leadership undoubtedly. Away from the specific policy measures adopted in 2008, we also saw some evidence of determined leadership, which was perhaps best represented by the emergence of the G20 in November 2008 and then its re-appearance in the Spring of 2009 and the collective determination to stand against recessionary forces, similar leadership is again necessary now.

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