我对johansen cointegration的协整方程如何得出有点疑惑,我本以为是用johansen cointegration test做出结果,结果里边会列出“1 cointegrating equation(s)”这一栏,里面会有带系数和标准误的方程。但是,我感到有问题的是,明明结果显示出trace test和maximum test都说no cointegration,为神马还会显示出方程捏?具体结果如下:
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)
Hypothesized Trace 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None 0.153043 23.46741 29.79707 0.2239
At most 1 0.036192 6.524667 15.49471 0.6335
At most 2 0.026740 2.764643 3.841466 0.0964
Trace test indicates no cointegration at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)
Hypothesized Max-Eigen 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None 0.153043 16.94275 21.13162 0.1747
At most 1 0.036192 3.760024 14.26460 0.8838
At most 2 0.026740 2.764643 3.841466 0.0964
Max-eigenvalue test indicates no cointegration at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):
LR_CRED_DEU L_GDP_DEU R_TX_DEU
-1.686588 -1.662388 0.192154
-17.57039 21.33652 -0.838842
19.82670 -36.46748 0.122790
Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):
D(LR_CRED_DEU) 0.004039 -6.65E-05 -0.000765
D(L_GDP_DEU) 0.001858 0.001020 0.001031
D(R_TX_DEU) 0.001182 0.069375 -0.011214
1 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood 618.8463
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
LR_CRED_DEU L_GDP_DEU R_TX_DEU
1.000000 0.985652 -0.113931
(1.29320) (0.08284)
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
D(LR_CRED_DEU) -0.006812
(0.00179)
D(L_GDP_DEU) -0.003134
(0.00158)
D(R_TX_DEU) -0.001993
(0.06258)
2 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood 620.7264
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
LR_CRED_DEU L_GDP_DEU R_TX_DEU
1.000000 0.000000 -0.041497
(0.03588)
0.000000 1.000000 -0.073488
(0.02977)
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
D(LR_CRED_DEU) -0.005644 -0.008134
(0.01871) (0.02268)
D(L_GDP_DEU) -0.021054 0.018673
(0.01642) (0.01991)
D(R_TX_DEU) -1.220938 1.478256
(0.64343) (0.78013)
希望有熟悉这方面高手可以帮忙解答,谢谢~