中国经济可能转入萧条

是 否 +2 论坛币

k人 参与回答

经管之家送您一份

应届毕业生专属福利!

求职就业群

赵安豆老师微信：zhaoandou666

经管之家联合CDA

送您一个全额奖学金名额~ !

立即领取

感谢您参与论坛问题回答

经管之家送您两个论坛币！

+2 论坛币

尽
管国际货币基金组织（International Monetary Fund，简称：IMF）预测今年中国国内生产总值（GDP）的增幅仍能达到9.5%的高水平，但IMF显然多了几分担心，即繁荣的中国经济可能转入萧条。

在IMF周三上午发布的《全球金融稳定报告》（Global Financial Stability Report）中，经济学家安德烈·迈耶（André Meier）评估了中国发生银行业危机的风险，其结果远不能让人安心。

2008年以来，尽管面临全球金融危机，但信贷的急剧扩张帮助中国维系了繁荣。但IMF的报告援引私营部门的分析说，这波信贷扩张狂潮可能会造成地方ZF债务账面价值的明显减记。虽然中国ZF自那以后试图降低传统银行贷款的增速，但IMF说其它形式的信贷却大量激增。因此，IMF估计，截至今年6月底，中国国内的贷款总量相当于GDP的173%。IMF认为这远远高于收入水平相似的其它发展中国家的信贷水平。

此外还有房地产市场的繁荣。自2006年底以来楼市的繁荣已经将房价至少推高了60%。但IMF告诫说，给楼市降温的措施可能导致房价回调的力度大于预期，这可能会进一步削弱地方ZF的偿债能力。这是因为地方ZF依靠土地出让收入补贴财政。

中国有足够的资金为银行纾困，其中可动用的包括3.2万亿美元的外汇储备。但IMF说，这可能还不足以排除重大不确定性，即损失最终将如何在私人投资者和中央ZF之间分配。IMF指出，当前中国银行股的股价正在下跌。

IMF的报告说，如果中国ZF插手干预，其后果可能是中国的公共债务指标大幅恶化。如果经济出现萧条，ZF未来进行财政刺激的余地会缩小。
英文对照：While the International Monetary Fund forecasts torrid 9.5% GDP growth this year in China, the IMF is clearly getting a little more worried that China’s boom could turn to bust.

In the IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report, released on Wednesday morning, economist André Meier assessed the risk of a banking crisis in China and is less than reassuring.

A huge expansion of credit in China since 2008 helped that country prosper despite the global financial crisis. But that lending spree may produce “significant write downs” on debts by local governments, the IMF report says, citing private sector analysis. Although the Chinese government has since tried to slow the growth of traditional bank loans, “other forms of credit have surged,” the IMF said As a result, the IMF estimates, China’s domestic loans equaled 173% of GDP at the end of June, which the IMF called “well above the levels of credit” for developing countries of a similar income level.

Add to that a real-estate boom, which has boosted property prices by at least 60% since the end of 2006. Measures to cool the market “might induce a sharper-than-expected correction in prices,” which could further undermine the ability of local governments to repay debt, the IMF warns. That’s because the localities rely on property sales for financing.

China has the wherewithal to bail out its banks, including $3.2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves. But the IMF says that may not be sufficient to “preclude significant bouts of uncertainty as to how losses will ultimate be allocated” among private investors and the central government. Already, the IMF notes, Chinese bank stock prices are slumping.

If the government does step in, the IMF report says, “the consequences could be a substantial worsening of China’s public debt metrics and a narrower scope for future fiscal stimulus” if the economy does slump.

扫码加我 拉你入群

请注明：姓名-公司-职位

以便审核进群资格，未注明则拒绝

分享0 收藏0 回帖

关键词：中国经济 Consequences Governments significant Internation 中国经济

经济过热了，凉下也好

这个很正常，全球都很萧条，中国就难以独善其身。

次，应特别注意支付给实验和掌握物理规律的基础实验。
物理学是一门实验科学。许多物理规律的总结，从模拟自然现象的实验。其它的测试可以帮助我们建立公正理念，提高能力，分析问题，解决问题，深化认识构成了物理定律。宋代诗人陆游说。 “信终觉感到它的到来，应该知道，这种做法是必要的，”他说，获得智慧，知识是不够的书，我们也应该动手的脑和手一起理解。

过热了，凉的快，容易感冒

不一定萧条，但速度放慢是必然的了

这个很正常，现在造房地产和出厂资源为发展方式的经济，本身就不是很稳定。泡沫迟早可坏毁。

不会，因为中国经济过热