诺贝尔经济学奖竞猜

可以参照一下去年的类似奖项的在美国的授予情况来做出相关推断

支持一下了

Douglas W. Diamond

Douglas W. Diamond specializes in the study of financial intermediaries, financial crises, and liquidity. His work has appeared in such notable journals as the Journal of Financial Economics, the Journal of Finance, the Review of Economic Studies, the American Economic Review, and the Journal of Political Economy. His research has been funded with grants from the National Science Foundation and the Garn Institute of Finance.

He has taught at Yale and was a visiting professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology as well as the University of Bonn. He is a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research and worked for the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System while a graduate student.

In addition to his roles as a researcher and professor, Diamond is a visiting scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, a position he has held since 1990, and is on the Board of Directors of the Center for Research in Security Prices. Diamond is a former president of the American Finance Association and the Western Finance Association. He is also a fellow of the Econometric Society, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and the American Finance Association. He joined Chicago Booth in 1979.

Diamond earned a bachelor's degree in economics from Brown University in 1975. He earned master's degrees in 1976 and 1977 and a PhD in 1980 in economics from Yale University.
Selected Publications

With Raghuram Rajan, "Money in a Theory of Banking," American Economic Review (March 2006).

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With Raghuram Rajan, "Liquidity Risk, Liquidity Creation and Financial Fragility: A Theory of Banking," Journal of Political Economy (April 2001).

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"Monitoring and Reputation: The Choice Between Bank Loans and Directly Placed Debt," Journal of Political Economy (August 1991).

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"Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," Review of Economic Studies (July 1984).

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With Philip Dybvig, "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy (June 1983).

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我也猜保罗.罗默.作为经济增长理论大师，他获奖可能性很大。也早该得奖了啊

猜保罗罗默，鉴于经济增长方面的贡献。

保罗·罗默（Paul M.Romer）；是经济增长方面的专家，最重要的工作是在经济增长领域。

　　罗默在1986年建立了内生经济增长模型，把知识完整纳入到经济和技术体系之内，使其做为经济增长的内生变量。罗默提出了四要素增长理论，即新古典经济学中的资本和劳动（非技术劳动）外，又加上了人力资本（以受教育的年限衡量）和新思想（用专利来衡量，强调创新）。
　　新增长理论的主要建立者是罗默（1986）和罗伯特·卢卡斯（Robert Lucas）（1988），探讨了纠正新古典经济增长模型的局限性的一些可能途径，用内生的技术来解释经济的增长。罗默在内生增长领域做出了杰出贡献，导致了经济增长分析的全面复兴。该理论的主要思想最早体现在罗默1983年的博士论文中，发表在1986年的《政治经济学期刊》（The Journal of Political Economy）上，提出了“内生经济增长理论”，探讨了纠正新古典经济增长模型的局限性的一些可能途径的论文，重新激起了经济学界对经济增长理论兴趣。
　　1992年罗默在世界银行发展经济学年会上进一步把上述思想运用到发展中国家和地区的发展战略的研究中,并认为:能否提供和使用更多的创意或知识品,将直接关系到一国或地区经济能否保持长期增长。例如,毛里求斯在20世纪70年代和80年代实施了开放政策,吸引了香港的企业家把新思想和知识品运用到那里,从而带动了该国经济发展,摆脱了赤贫状况。

obstfeld M他开创了新开放经济宏观经济学

保罗罗默 吧 。。。

希勒在金融市场、行为经济学、宏观经济学、不动产、统计方法以及市场公众态度、意见与道德评判等方面，著作颇丰。1989年写的《市场波动》（Market Volatility，由麻省理工学院出版）对投机市场的价格波动作了数学分析和行为分析；1993年写的《宏观市场：建立管理社会最大经济风险的机制》(Macro Markets: Creating Institutions for Managing Society’s Largest Economic Risks，由剑桥大学出版社出版) 提出了多种新的风险管理合同，如国民收入或不动产期货合同，这将会引领一场适应现代人生活水平的风险管理领域的新的革命，此书获得1996年 美国教师保险与年金协会-大学退休证券基金 （TIAA-CREF）萨缪尔森奖项；另一本书，《非理性繁荣》(Irrational Exuberance，2000年由普林斯顿大学出版社出版，2001年由百老汇图书出版)对1982年以来的股市繁荣作了一番分析和说明，并获得了2000年共同基金（Commonfund）奖项，被纽约时报评为非科幻类最畅销书。

Clive William John Granger  &  Roselyne Joyeux
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clive_Granger
论文：Granger, C. W. J. and Joyeux, R. (1980). "An introduction to long-memory time series models and fractional differencing". Journal of Time Series Analysis 1: 15–30.
Jonathan Hosking
http://www.research.ibm.com/people/h/hosking/
论文：
Hosking, J. R. M. (1981). Fractional differencing. Biometrika, 68, 165-176.
Hosking, J. R. M. (1996). Asymptotic distributions of the sample mean, autocovariances and autocorrelations of long-memory time series. Journal of Econometrics, 73, 261-284.
他们杰出的成就是提出最经典的长记忆模型ARFIMA（0，d，0）序列，成为金融计量、统计学、计量经济学等领域的前沿问题，长记忆模型是分形市场假说等新的金融理论的数理模型基础，是对有效市场假说的数理模型基础的拓展和广义化。但是Clive William John Granger(September 4, 1934 – May 27, 2009)In 2003, Granger was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, in recognition that he and his co-winner, Robert F. Engle, had made discoveries in the analysis of time series data that had changed fundamentally the way in which economists analyse financial and macroeconomic data.
所以，Jonathan Hosking和Roselyne Joyeux可能获奖。。。。。