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巴塞尔协议三：The global credit boom中文翻译
However, these
are hard to reconcile with the empirical features of the past decade because it is not clear how
these shocks would have generated higher credit and asset prices but not higher output and
ination. It is for these reasons that many orthodox economists have argued that the origins of
the credit and asset price cycle can be found in the process of globalisation. The two most
popular explanations are the ìglobal savings glutî theory associated with Ben Bernanke and the
shortage of nancial assets theory associated with Ricardo Caballero. According to these
theories, robust supply-driven growth in emerging economies created an excess of savings over
investment which has owed to the advanced economies either as a consequence of policy
choices (to support export-led growth) or because their nancial systems are unable to absorb
such high savings (the nancial asset shortage). The result is capital ows into advanced
economy nancial markets, low advanced economy interest rates, and current account
imbalances. At the global level the relatively modest impact on ination despite stronger output
growth is explained by the increased growth being supply-driven.
7
However, while the process of globalisation is undoubtedly important ñ as will be emphasised in
section 4 ñ it does not rescue the orthodox model in our view. First, it does not explain why the
boom lasted so long. Efcient markets would normally have been expected to generate a rapid
increase in asset prices when the positive supply shock emerged, not a gradually intensifying
boom that transitioned rapidly into crisis. Second, it does not explain how such a pronounced
credit and nancial cycle coexisted with neither higher growth nor rising ination in the
economies where it took place. This sort of separation of the real and nancial economies is
incompatible with both the efcient markets hypothesis and the nancial accelerator. Third, the
increase in credit in the advanced economies far exceeded the net inows of capital from
emerging economies. This suggests that most of the credit expansion in the advanced economies
was created domestically.
8
Fourth, the link between credit and international capital ows appears
to have been asymmetric. Our analysis of bank lending suggests that there were credit booms in
many of the large emerging economies, such as China from 1997-2000, India from 1998-2007
and Brazil from 2000-2007 despite the outows of capital which the emerging economies
experienced.
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