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雷达卡
共3篇，有关香港的银行业2篇，印尼的1篇。
概要如下，希望大家感兴趣：Hong Kong Banks
Between Europe and China
During the financial crisis, credit risk of Hong Kong banks shifted from
Europe to China, as credit to Europe was replaced by credit to China,
which should drive the credit quality cycle of Hong Kong. At the same
time, Europe prefers Hong Kong for liquidity parking. While “Europe
risk” shifts from credit to liquidity, Asia’s flight to quality behavior is a
stablizer of Hong Kong liquidity. Therefore credit crunch is a function of
credit demand from China, rather than credit supply. Progress of China
policy easing and HK$ deposit rate are two leading indicators of liquidity
pressure. We remain cautious on Hong Kong banks. We prefer BOCHK
for its solid capital positions and deposit franchise.
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Hong Kong Banks
Wild wide spread
Spread continues to widen in Nov 2011. While wider loan spread
intuitively benefits banks, deposit competition underpinned NIM pressure
in this interest rate cycle. Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates
fixed till 2013 has resulted in flat benchmark interest rates (Prime and
HIBOR), and thus interest rate of “floating rate” loans become fixed.
Banks' back-book is locked and reprices at c.37% p.a. (vs. 99% for
deposits). Pressure on NIM is obvious in 3Q11 results, and we expect
further compression in 4Q. We forecast 20bp decline in NIM in 2011. We
remain cautious on HK banks, with BOCHK as our preferred option.
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Indonesia: Banks
Inside the Credit Cycle: Revisiting Cyclical Positioning
& Forex Lending
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