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􀂄 Preview: HMI est +1pt to 21
We forecast a rise in the housing market index (UBSe 21, cons 20, after 20) in
December. Builder confidence has risen rapidly, albeit to still low levels, in the last
two months. The improvement has been echoed in rising mortgage applications.
Richmond Fed Pres Lacker will speak about the economic outlook at 12:30.
􀂄 The week ahead: cuts to GDP & EHS history, but stronger data otherwise
Significant downward revisions could lessen the impact of generally positive
spending, housing, and confidence data in the coming week. We estimate Q3 real
GDP growth will be cut to a 1.6% annual rate from 2.0%, reflecting new data on
consumer services spending. Existing home sales likely rose in November, but the
report will include sharp downward revisions from 2007 on (estimated at -15%).
However, our forecasts are consistently stronger than consensus for other data out
next week. We project increases in housing starts, new home sales, and the FHFA
home price index. Consumer sentiment, durable goods orders and inventories, and
the index of leading economic indicators probably also rose. And we forecast little
change in jobless claims after the plunge of the past two weeks.
􀂄 Review: CPI 0.0%, core CPI 0.2%
The CPI was unchanged m/m in November (cons: +0.1, UBS -0.1%, after -0.1%),
but the core CPI rose 0.2% (cons 0.1%, UBSe 0.2%, after 0.1% in the prior two
months). The core CPI has slowed to a 1.5% annual rate over the past three
months, versus its 2.2% y/y pace.
来 源： | 瑞银证券 | 撰写时间： | 2011-12-16 |
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