Japan Economic Comment:BoJ Tankan (Dec): reflects ove

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Japan Economic Comment:BoJ Tankan (Dec): reflects ove...

BoJ Tankan (Dec): reflects overseas
concerns and firm domestic demand
􀂄 Summary
The October-December BoJ Tankan survey results reflect large manufacturers’
concerns about the overseas economic outlook, but the employment conditions DI
and bank lending attitude DI improved, suggesting firm domestic demand.
􀂄 Analysis
In the October-December Tankan survey, the business conditions DI (large
manufacturing) came to -4 (consensus: -2), deteriorating from +2 in July-
September, due partly to concerns about the overseas economic and market outlook
(but still higher than the -9 recorded in April-June, which was largely impacted by
the Tohoku earthquake)
The January-March outlook DI came to -5, thus deteriorating only slightly. Near
term, markets may remain nervous until visibility regarding the outcome of the
euro crisis and the economic downturn improves but may not be anticipating an
excessively pessimistic outcome (the low marked after Lehman Brother’s
bankruptcy filing is -58). Large manufacturers’ JPY/USD assumption for H2 FY11
is ¥77.90/US$, so the current level of the yen appears to have already been
anticipated. Banks lending stance DI (all industries/all sizes) came to +7 (loose),
unchanged from three months ago.
The closely watched banks’ lending attitude DI for SMEs (all industries) came to
+2, improving further after having turned positive in July-September (+1). When
this DI is positive, small businesses tend to feel that their business partners can
receive support from banks, thus corporate credit (including trade receivables)
tends to expand, which in turn heightens business activity among SMEs. This was
seen in 2004, when the DI turned positive. SMEs account for about 60% of Japan’s
employment, and increased activity among SMEs tends to mean a domestic
demand recovery.
Employment conditions DI (all industries/all sizes) came to +1 (positive = excess),
improving further from +2 in the July-September quarter. The business conditions
DI (large non-manufacturing) improved to +4 from +1 in July-September (DI for
SMEs improved for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing). Reconstruction
activity appears to be increasing, and thus domestic demand appears firm.
We aggregated the business conditions DI (large manufacturing), bank lending
attitude DI, and employment conditions DI into one CI (adjusted for volatility), in
order to assess the overall strength of the economy in a comprehensive manner.
The CI came to 100.2 in October-December, remaining more or less flat from three
months ago; 90 is ‘neutral,’ and 100 suggests a steady economic recovery, thus
momentum does not appear to have been lost.
Our real GDP forecast assumes that the US can continue to grow and a global
recession can be avoided, even if Europe falls into a mild recession, as our
colleagues expect. We forecast 2.5% growth next year, 1.75pts from private and
public sector reconstruction related spending, and 0.75pts (close to its potential
growth rate) for other factors.
Global Economics Research

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撰写时间：

2011-12-15

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