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Standard Chartered_2012 Fragile West, resilient East_1112.pdf.pdf
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Global overview
Fragile West, resilient East ................................................ p.5
Strategy
Strategy overview: Let’s try this again ........................... p.10
Commodities: A glass half full ........................................ p.12
Credit: Bracing for a rocky start ....................................... p.15
Equities: EM to outperform DM ....................................... p.18
FX: Déjà vu all over again – 2009 versus 2012 ............... p.21
Rates: EM rates to outperform in 2012 ............................ p.24
Sovereign risk: More downgrades to come .................... p.27
Economies
MAJORS
Australia: Beyond the mining boom ................................ p.31
Canada: Fiscally responsible, firm growth ....................... p.32
Euro area: EMU strains to dominate amid recession ...... p.33
Japan: Rocky road to recovery ........................................ p.35
New Zealand: Rebuilding growth, bricks-and-mortar style .. p.36
United Kingdom: High recession risks ........................... p.37
United States: Economic wounds continue to heal ........ .p.38
ASIA
Asia: A test of resilience, once more ............................... p.42
Bangladesh: Still resilient, but strains are emerging ....... p.44
China: Getting used to 8% .............................................. p.46
Hong Kong: Domestic resilience shines through ............ p.48
India: High time to act!..................................................... p.50
Indonesia: Not immune to the global slowdown .............. p.52
Malaysia: Resting on commodities .................................. p.54
Pakistan: Gearing up for elections .................................. p.56
Philippines: Another test of resilience ............................ p.58
Singapore: Mitigating volatility ........................................ p.59
South Korea: Domestic demand to the rescue ............... p.61
Sri Lanka: Inching ahead with caution ............................ p.63
Taiwan: Struggling with rising uncertainty ....................... p.64
Thailand: Post-flood recovery ......................................... p.66
Vietnam: Keep doing the right thing ................................ p.68
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Africa: More cautious approach to liberalisation ............. p.71
Angola: Restarting the growth engine ............................. p.73
Botswana: A new global diamond hub ............................ p.74
Cameroon: Growth to pick up despite risks ..................... p.75
Côte d’Ivoire: Towards economic normalisation ............. p.76
Gambia: Fiscal concerns remain ..................................... p.77
Ghana: First election as an oil producer .......................... p.78
Kenya: A key election year .............................................. p.80
Mozambique: Unstoppable ............................................. p.82
Nigeria: The USD 250bn question ................................... p.83
Senegal: Staying the course in an uncertain year ........... p.85
Sierra Leone: Iron ore drives export transformation ........ p.86
South Africa: Still-slow growth ........................................ p.87
Tanzania: Cautious pace of liberalisation ........................ p.89
Uganda: Oil one day ........................................................ p.90
Zambia: Resource nationalism, revisited ......................... p.91
MIDDLE EAST and NORTH AFRICA
MENA: Local differentiators ............................................. p.94
Algeria: Output erosion ................................................... p.96
Bahrain: Saved by oil ...................................................... p.97
Egypt: Managing change and expectations ..................... p.98
Jordan: Looking towards the GCC ................................ p.100
Kuwait: Oil in a day’s work ............................................ p.101
Lebanon: Growth to return in 2012 ................................ p.102
Morocco: Economic resilience and a reform agenda .... p.103
Oman: Bucking the global trend .................................... p.104
Qatar: Lower growth, better growth ............................... p.106
Saudi Arabia: The spending story continues ................ p.108
Tunisia: Looking ahead ................................................. p.110
UAE: Sustaining healthy growth .................................... p.111
LATIN AMERICA
Argentina: More Kirchnerismo ...................................... p.115
Brazil: COPOM banking on lower inflation .................... p.116
Chile: Central bank is ready to act ................................. p.118
Colombia: Reforms, FTA underpin strong outlook ........ p.119
Mexico: Banxico is on hold ............................................ p.120
Peru: More Lula than Chavez, so far ............................. p.121
Forecast snapshots
Forecasts .................................................................... p.123
World Wide Wrap ...................................................... p.127
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