FT社评：股市羊群行为的危险

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FT社评：股市羊群行为的危险 Leader_Dangers of market herd stampedes

Entering 2012, with many geo-political fears on the horizon, equity investors might be expected to lie awake at night worrying about another stock market crash. But that is not what is bothering them at all. Instead, many worry about the possibility of another market rally to match the great rebound that began in the spring of 2009.	鉴于地缘政治方面隐忧众多，人们或许以为股票投资人士会夜不能寐，在对股市再次崩盘的担心中迎来2012年。但这根本就不是他们目前所烦恼的，相反，他们中的许多人所担心的是股市可能重现始于2009年春季的那种大反弹行情。
This is because the investment managers’ incentives are badly skewed. They are not paid to make money, or even to beat the market. Rather, they are paid not to do worse than their peers. Going down with the market would not be so bad for them; missing out on a rally like in 2009, when stocks doubled in barely two years, would be catastrophic for their career. That is the logic of the way they are paid – usually, as a proportion of their assets under management – and of the way they are judged – against their peers and public stock indices. The result of the investment industry’s misaligned incentives, a contributory factor to the financial crisis which has so far eluded any attempt at a remedy, is that equities enter 2012 looking overvalued. Such mispricing is only likely to lead to misallocation of capital later. In present circumstances, nobody needs that.	这是因为，投资经理们受到的激励是极度扭曲的。投资经理们并不是靠实现盈利获取报酬的，甚至超越大盘也不算什么；只要不比其他同行差，他们就能心安理得地享受酬劳。对于投资经理们来说，业绩跟随市场情况变差算不上太糟，但错过2009年那样的大反弹（短短两年市值翻了一番），对他们的职业生涯来说就是一场灾难了。这就是公司发给他们薪酬的逻辑（通常与他们所管理资产的规模成比例）和评判他们的标准（与同行和公开股指比较）。投资行业扭曲的激励方式（这也是金融危机产生的原因之一，且迄今为止人们还从未尝试加以纠正），导致股市在高估的状态下迎来2012年。估值不当只可能导致今后资本配置不当。在目前的情况下，没有人希望发生这样的情形。
It is possible to argue against this. Earnings multiples, the most popular measure of stocks’ value, fell steadily during 2011. At 13 times historic earnings, multiples on the S&P 500 in the US are as low as they have been in two decades, barring a few months during the immediate aftermath of the Lehman Brothers collapse. There is therefore an argument that shares already discount many of the political and macroeconomic fears in the environment.	你或许能够对此加以反驳。市盈率（衡量市值的最普遍标准）2011年间稳步下降。美国标准普尔500指数目前的历史市盈率为13倍，不算雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)倒闭后的那几个月，这是最近20年里最低的水平。因此，有人辩称，股价已经针对政治和宏观经济方面的许多隐忧相应地进行了折减。
But this ignores the performance of corporate earnings. Profits have made a complete recovery following the Lehman disaster. This is driven by record margins; in the US, corporate profits as a proportion of gross domestic product are at their highest ever (although this effect diminishes if financial companies are excluded). Margins have a strong historical tendency to revert to the mean. Earnings multiples, over history, have tended to adjust for the corporate profit cycle, falling when earnings appear cyclically high, as at present. Current multiples are not, therefore, as cheap as they appear.	但这种说法忽略了企业盈利表现。企业利润状况已完全从雷曼灾难中恢复了过来。这是受到创纪录利润率的驱动：在美国，企业利润占国内生产总值(GDP)的比重目前处于历史最高点（不过如果不算金融企业，就没有这么明显）。从历史经验来看，利润率有回归均值的强烈倾向；而市盈率往往会跟随企业利润周期进行调整，当盈利处在其周期变化曲线的波峰段时（如现在），市盈率往往趋于下降。因此，目前的市盈率并不像表面看起来的那样便宜。
Companies’ strong profits, and the record cash levels on their balance sheets, also raise the risk of a reaction. Both shareholders and governments expect to grab a share of that cash, either through dividends or taxes. And if margins are unsustainably high, as appears to be the case, earnings growth can only come from robust rises in revenues, which would depend on a buoyant economy.	企业利润情况一片大好，资产负债表上现金水平出现创纪录新高，这也加大了回调的风险。股东和ZF都指望能通过分红或税收分走企业的一部分现金。而如果利润率的高水平是不可持续的（如目前的情况），盈利增长就只能依靠营收的快速增长，而后者将有赖于强劲的经济。
And finally, to make stocks look cheap history must be analysed selectively. Compared with the last 30 years, largely a period of unparalleled prosperity, stocks appear to offer good value. But earnings multiples were lower than 13 for most of the decade that followed the oil price shock of 1973. Further back in history, it was the norm for stocks to be cheaper in terms of yield than bonds, as now, because they were thought to be riskier.	最后，若说如今的股票似乎挺便宜，要看以哪段时期做参照。过去30年间的大部分时间都是少见的繁荣期。和这段时期相比，目前股票价位似乎很划算。但在1973年石油危机之后的10年里，大部分时间市盈率都低于13倍。而更早的时候，从收益率的角度来讲，股票往往比债券便宜（正如现在），因为大家认为股票的风险更高。
It is hard, therefore, to avoid the conclusion that stocks are levitating at over-inflated prices, thanks to the herd-like behaviour and collective fear of investment institutions. Record close correlations between stocks suggest that their due diligence into corporate fundamentals is minimal, and imply that mispricings abound. Rather than attempt to exploit such anomalies, investors are worrying about the macroeconomic environment, and trading via indexed investments.	因此，我们很难不得出这样的结论：由于投资机构的羊群行为和集体恐惧症，股票价格存在虚高。个股相关性达到创纪录高点，表明投资机构对企业基本面的尽职调查非常匮乏，也意味着价格不合理现象极其普遍。投资者没有试图利用这种不正常现象，而是担心宏观经济环境，并通过指数化投资进行交易。
But because of the fear of another big rally, equities – particularly in the US – have avoided the cathartic sell-off needed to squeeze out speculative excesses. Such inefficiently priced equity capital adds to the list of reasons to fear another market or financial accident in 2012.	但因为投资者顾虑市场会再来一轮大反弹，股市（尤其是美股）没有出现挤出过度投机所需的、具有泻药般功效的暴跌。股权资本的无效率定价，让人们更有理由担心2012年市场或金融体系会再出状况。
	译者/吴蔚

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关键词：羊群行为 Catastrophic Institutions Shareholders correlations 股市 股票投资 expected another spring

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应该对中国股市中那些股民也挺有警示作用的吧