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英国《金融时报》 Guy Chazan伦敦报道
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Oil demand has fallen for the first time since the 2008-09 global financial crisis, a result of the weakening economy, a mild winter in the northern hemisphere and high crude prices, say estimates from the Inter national Energy Agency. | 国际能源署(IEA)估计，自2008年至2009年的全球金融危机以来，石油需求已经首次出现下降，原因包括经济不振、北半球遭遇暖冬，以及原油价格高企等。 |
The industrialised nations’ watchdog said that oil demand dropped 300,000 barrels a day year on year in the final quarter of 2011. The agency, while still forecasting overall growth in demand for 2012, revised down its outlook for this year from growth of 1.3m barrels a day to 1.1m b/d, and said that more revisions were possible. Global demand in 2011 was 89.5m b/d. | 这家代表发达工业国的监管机构表示，2011年四季度，石油日需求量同比减少了30万桶。虽然IEA仍然预期2012年总体需求会出现增长，但把对今年日需求量增长的预期从130万桶下调至110万桶，并表示还有可能继续下调。2011年全球石油需求总量为8950万桶。 |
David Fyfe, head of the IEA’s oil industry and markets arm, said that the drop in demand late last year reflected the mild winter, which was in sharp contrast to the cold winter of 2010-11. But it was still surprising. “It is quite rare” to see an absolute contraction, he said. “We’re flagging that there are clearly downside risks to the global economy and to oil demand.” | IEA石油行业和市场部负责人戴维•费夫(David Fyfe)表示，去年年底石油需求量的下降与暖冬有关，这与跨2010和2011年的那个寒冬形成鲜明的对比。不过这种下降仍然令人吃惊。他说，需求量出现绝对收缩是“十分罕见”的。“我们正提醒各方注意，全球经济和石油需求的确存在下行风险。” |
The price of crude has been relatively stable since last spring, within a range of $100 to $120 a barrel. But it jumped $4-$5 a barrel at the new year as the European Union prepared to impose a ban on Iranian oil imports and Tehran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a main route for oil exports from the Gulf. | 原油价格自去年春天以来就一直相对稳定，维持在每桶100美元至120美元的区间内。然而在新年之际，由于欧盟(EU)准备对伊朗实施石油禁令，伊朗方面则威胁关闭海湾石油出口的主要通道霍尔木兹海峡，油价平均每桶上涨了4至5美元。 |
The IEA characterised the oil market as finely balanced between fears of supply disruptions owing to Iran tensions and concerns about an economic slowdown that would weaken demand for oil, reflected in a series of refinery shutdowns. | IEA将石油市场概括为维持着微妙的平衡：一方面担心伊朗局势紧张可能扰乱供应，另一方面又担心经济放缓可能抑制石油需求——后者在一系列炼油厂关闭事件中就得到了体现。 |
Mr Fyfe said that the world could see zero oil demand growth this year if there were further downgrades to global gross domestic product growth estimates. | 费夫称，如果全球国内生产总值(GDP)增长预期进一步下调，那么今年全球石油需求可能会出现零增长。 |
Oil markets in Europe and Asia, hit last year by the loss of Libyan supply, worry that sanctions against Iran will affect the availability of crude. | 欧洲和亚洲的石油市场去年曾受到利比亚石油供应中断的打击，现在又开始担忧对伊朗采取制裁会影响原油供应。 |
| 译者/何黎 |
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