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GS 高华证券--行业研究--中国金融服务：看好中国银行业，提高对银行和保险公司的目标价格，
买入工商银行(A),工商银行(H)，招商银行(A)，浦发，交通银行
January 31, 2007 13页 英文 pdf
88505.pdf
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Though we expect potential share price volatility on tightening/rate hike concerns in 1H2007, we remain positive on China banks in 2007 after the recent healthy correction, for four reasons:
(1) strong, visible earning growth for China banks amid strong GDP growth and benign asset quality;
(2) continuing bank reform momentum; recap/restructuring of weak banks should reduce systemic risks for banks and potential macro downside risks;
(3) 12%-18% upside for H-share banks based on a 2007 basis and potentially 30%+ upside if the market starts to rollover valuations on a 2008 basis (including 5% Rmb appreciation annually); and
(4) potential continued decline in cost of equity (COE) in both the H-share and A-share markets, in light of continued bank reforms, rapid forex reserve accumulation, structurally high banking sector liquidity and low long-term bond yields in China. Our FY2007 earning estimates are on average 11% higher than consensus. We would add to positions on any significant pullback
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