EVIEWS中Johansen协整检验结果如何分析

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小弟新学EVIEWS，不知Johansen协整检验结果如何分析，
还请帮忙，十分感谢！！！
原始数据序列如下：

SER_01	SER_10	SER_11	SER_12
45649.00	772.9700	33258.20	3.000000
44510.00	804.3600	32690.30	3.000000
46662.00	1141.640	32335.00	3.000000
50454.00	1572.660	32260.40	4.940000
49417.00	1836.270	32434.90	5.480000
51230.00	1961.200	32626.40	9.140000
50839.00	2011.730	32911.80	9.130000
46218.00	2031.800	32798.00	9.780000
45264.00	2113.020	32451.00	10.28000
45706.00	2236.500	31991.00	9.880000
43069.50	2319.330	31259.60	12.43000
46946.90	2513.760	30596.00	15.61000
48402.20	2851.870	29975.50	19.90000
49804.00	3155.410	28695.90	21.42000
50148.00	3822.870	27564.00	22.10000

经画图得知，有截距项，没有趋势项，
在Cointegration Test中，选项默认，
得结果如下：

Date:  03/13/12   Time: 11:46
Sample(adjusted): 1995 2007
Included observations: 13  after adjusting endpoints
Trend assumption: Linear  deterministic trend
Series: SER_01 SER_10 SER_11  SER_12
Lags interval (in first  differences): 1 to 1
Unrestricted Cointegration  Rank Test
Hypothesized		Trace	5 Percent	1 Percent
No. of CE(s)	Eigenvalue	Statistic	Critical Value	Critical Value
None **	0.997628	147.0389	47.21	54.46
At most 1 **	0.963010	68.46469	29.68	35.65
At most 2 **	0.668225	25.60243	15.41	20.04
At most 3 **	0.579419	11.25955	3.76	6.65
*(**) denotes  rejection of the hypothesis at the 5%(1%) level
Trace test indicates 4  cointegrating equation(s) at both 5% and 1% levels

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关键词：johansen协整检验 johansen协整 Johansen EVIEWS johans 如何

Hypothesized		Max-Eigen	5 Percent	1 Percent
No. of CE(s)	Eigenvalue	Statistic	Critical Value	Critical Value
None **	0.997628	78.57419	27.07	32.24
At most 1 **	0.963010	42.86226	20.97	25.52
At most 2 *	0.668225	14.34288	14.07	18.63
At most 3 **	0.579419	11.25955	3.76	6.65
*(**) denotes rejection of the hypothesis atthe 5%(1%)  level
Max-eigenvalue test indicates 4cointegrating  equation(s) at the 5% level
Max-eigenvalue test indicates 2cointegrating  equation(s) at the 1% level
Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients(normalized by  b'*S11*b=I):
SER_01	SER_10	SER_11	SER_12
0.000286	-0.005022	0.001123	0.836165
0.000950	0.003813	0.004253	-0.340973
-4.60E-05	-0.003479	-0.002409	-0.057038
0.000199	0.002420	-0.003656	-0.735146
Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients(alpha):
D(SER_01)	-931.9968	-367.8826	1286.238	-360.3975
D(SER_10)	35.34922	12.90969	48.95837	17.51889
D(SER_11)	-113.0086	133.1451	132.7644	41.08994
D(SER_12)	-0.863324	-0.956917	-0.032142	0.433878

不存在协整关系

1 Cointegrating  Equation(s):		Log likelihood	-258.1783
Normalized  cointegrating coefficients (std.err. in parentheses)
SER_01	SER_10	SER_11	SER_12
1.000000	-17.54540	3.922549	2921.383
	(0.45497)	(0.32101)	(73.6456)
Adjustment  coefficients (std.err. in parentheses)
D(SER_01)	-0.266758
	(0.18239)
D(SER_10)	0.010118
	(0.00709)
D(SER_11)	-0.032346
	(0.02363)
D(SER_12)	-0.000247
	(0.00012)

2 Cointegrating  Equation(s):		Log likelihood	-236.7472
Normalized  cointegrating coefficients (std.err. in parentheses)
SER_01	SER_10	SER_11	SER_12
1.000000	0.000000	4.374992	251.8911
		(0.32210)	(44.5240)
0.000000	1.000000	0.025787	-152.1477
		(0.02339)	(3.23314)
Adjustment  coefficients (std.err. in parentheses)
D(SER_01)	-0.616085	3.277598
	(0.61677)	(3.92134)
D(SER_10)	0.022376	-0.128293
	(0.02408)	(0.15309)
D(SER_11)	0.094084	1.075216
	(0.06493)	(0.41281)
D(SER_12)	-0.001156	0.000687
	(0.00023)	(0.00144)

3 Cointegrating  Equation(s): Log likelihood -229.5758     Normalized  cointegrating coefficients    (std.err. in parentheses) SER_01 SER_10 SER_11 SER_12       1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -935.5257       (160.971) 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 -159.1465 (1.69681) 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 271.4101 (36.3332) Adjustment  coefficients (std.err. in    parentheses) D(SER_01) -0.675196 -1.197245 -5.708816     (0.38504) (2.79294) (1.94479) D(SER_10) 0.020126 -0.298620 -0.023331     (0.01560) (0.11319) (0.07881) D(SER_11) 0.087983 0.613327 0.119573     (0.04175) (0.30282) (0.21086) D(SER_12) -0.001154 0.000798 -0.004961     (0.00023) (0.00164) (0.00114)

xxc010101 发表于 2012-3-13 12:00
不存在协整关系

为什么呀

不存在协整关系，因为拒绝了至多有两个协整关系、至多有一个协整关系的原假设。

sdawei 发表于 2012-3-13 12:19
不存在协整关系，因为拒绝了至多有两个协整关系、至多有一个协整关系的原假设。

请问判断依据是啥呢，谢谢

协整关系应该不成立