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Executive summary ............................................................................ 4
This report debunks 16 Western misperceptions about China.
Based on data and our own research, we assert the following:
1. China is not export-driven .......................................................... 10
2. World’s best consumption story ................................................. 15
3. Entrepreneur-driven economy ................................................... 22
4. Banking crisis unlikely, near term .............................................. 25
5. RRR cuts are not easing ............................................................. 27
6. Party plans 8-8.5% GDP growth ................................................ 29
7. Local-govt debt not a time bomb ................................................ 31
8. Land sales are not key ............................................................... 36
9. Political instability very unlikely ................................................ 38
10. World’s best privatisation story ................................................. 40
11. Even the poor are homeowners .................................................. 41
12. There is no property bubble ....................................................... 42
13. No “shadow” banks .................................................................... 46
14. RMB is not grossly undervalued ................................................. 49
15. RMB not a key issue for USA ...................................................... 52
16. Manufacturing still competitive .................................................. 56
The real worry: The rule of law ........................................................ 61
References ....................................................................................... 65
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20120515 CSLA China Macro.pdf
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