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Takeaways from Guangzhou lighting show
**LED lighting may not be a strong demand catalyst until late 2013
We visited the Guangzhou International Lighting Exhibition held from 9-12 June.
Feedback from participants suggested demand in H212 is likely to weaken
(especially for TV BLU) given the weak macro outlook. Although participants
have not yet turned pessimistic on H212, most suggested they are more hopeful of
government projects, while consumer replacement demand is still uncertain.
**Shifting from efficiency to cost reduction; penetration could be slow
Feedback from certain industry participants indicated that the sweet spot lm/$ for
packaged LED is 1,000-1,200 lm/$ (vs. current 550-600 lm/$), which may not be
achieved till 2014. Meanwhile, given the general lighting market is fragmented,
some market participants think the LED penetration rate could be slow.
**Less aggressive promotion from global tier-one lighting brands
In contrast to the strong promotion by local LED vendors, global lighting
companies are not as aggressive in promoting LED lamps given the conflict with
its current CFL business. Our checks suggest the 60W replacement LED lamp
(9W) from Philip is still sold at US$20-25 and LEDinside also expects ASP for the
60W incandescent lamp to drop to US$10 in H113, slower than the earlier
expectation of late 2012.
**Too early to revisit Taiwan LED sector; maintain Sell on Epistar
For the Taiwan LED sector, we expect limited sales upside catalysts in Q312 given
weakening demand, while margins could be under pressure due to ASP erosion.
Although share prices of Epistar and Everlight have corrected c30% from the peak
in 2012, we remain cautious on the sector given the weak H212 outlook.
20120614-UBS-Taiwan LED-20120613.pdf
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