Europe’s Three Eastern Questions

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Today, the European project is shaking. Of course, I am confident that theeurozone’s ongoing sovereign-debt crisis will be overcome, and that a moreintegrated and effective Europe will emerge.But, to get to that improved Europe, not only must the sovereign debt crisis beresolved; relations with three major countries to Europe’s east – Turkey, Russia,and Ukraine– will need to be put on more secure footing.

I was of the generation in my country that lived through the transitionfrom dictatorship to democracy four decades ago. For us, the European Union wasa dream. Indeed, we used to quote Ortega y Gasset: “If Spain is the problem, Europeis the solution.”

I continue to believe, very deeply, that Europeis the solution, particularly for societies that need to deepen – if notestablish – a democratic tradition. Closer relations between Europe and Turkey, Russia,and Ukraine can deliver forthem many of the same benefits that we in Spainalways associated with Europe.

Turkey is, of course, already a candidate for EU membership, but accession negotiations are moving very slowly,which is strategically unwise, because Turkey’sgreat authority in the wider Middle East is vitally important to Europe (and probably greater than its own). From Syria to all of the Arab Spring countries, Turkey’sinfluence is highly significant, and further cooperation with the EU can onlyprove beneficial.

The EU has created a channel of communication with Turkey onpolitical matters. But it has not resolved the relationship’s endgame. My passionate hope is that Turkey becomes an EU member, because a countrythat is Muslim, democratic, and overwhelmingly young could strengthen the Union in vital ways.

The debate around Turkish membership is set to become hotter in the secondhalf of this year, when Cyprusassumes the EU’s rotating presidency. Turkey, to be blunt,will not recognize today’s divided Cyprus as the sole representativeof that island. Further complicating matters is the discovery of oil close tothe Cypriot coast. Anyone planning to drill there will become embroiled in a major maritime dispute, with Cyprus claiming that the reserves lie within itsterritorial waters, and Turkey countering that Cyprus has no territorialwaters, because Cyprus, at least for the Turks, does not exist.

Russia has become a different type of complicating factor for Europe.Vladimir Putin, who has now returned to the presidency, may be the same personas before, but Russiahas changed. The recent wave of protests in Moscow and throughout the country has exposedthe limits of his power. I believe that Putin understands this, which is animportant fact for future diplomacy.

In the next few days, the formation of Russia’s new government will revealmuch about power relations between conservatives and liberals. Notably,billions of dollars of public property are at stake,owing to a privatization plan designed by former President Dimitri Medvedev.

Here, the EU has a framework – the Partnership for Modernization,negotiated with Medvedev – that could potentially be very positive. Russia’s accessionto the World Trade Organization in 2011 should also help to ensure that itplays by international rules, as occurred with China when it joined the WTO. Russia’sadherence to the WTO’s legal framework should begin to make economic relationswith it much more stable and predictable.

Previously, Russia’s admission to the WTO had been blocked by Georgia,which lifted its veto last year after a featof elegant diplomacy that established aborder-control mechanism without recognizing the breakawayregions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia either as part of Georgia or asindependent countries. That solution, while complicated, is a good outcome forthe region.

Given the scale of Ukraine’scurrent problems and dysfunction, an elegant solution may neither be availablenor sufficient. Ukraine,with which I have been engaged since its independence, has been a greatfrustration to me. I was involved in the negotiations that helped to bringabout a peaceful resolution of the Orange Revolution of 2004-2005. But subsequentinfighting between the revolution’s leaders,Yulia Tymoshenko and Viktor Yushchenko, was so destructive that ViktorYanukovych, whose efforts to manipulate the 2004 presidential election incited the revolution, is now President andTymoshenko is in jail.

For the EU, Ukrainecontinues to be a serious problem. A comprehensive free-trade and associationagreement with the Union remains unsigned,owing to the incarceration of Tymoshenko andothers. Fortunately, given the Union’s attraction for most ordinary Ukrainians,there is still hope that simple realism will persuade Yanukovych and Ukraine’sruling elite to return to a path that would allow for the association agreementto be signed.

Europe’s soft power haschanged many things in many countries over the past two decades, spurringleaders and citizens to reform their economies and embrace or strengthendemocratic values and institutions. It can continue to do so in Turkey, Russia,and Ukraine, or, through inattention and inaction,Europe could lose credibility, influence, andeconomic opportunities.

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关键词：questions question Eastern Europe Easter generation countries effective overcome country

to get to improved Europe, not only must thesovereign debt crisis be resolved; relations with three major countries toEurope’s east – Turkey, Russia, and Ukraine – will need to be put onmore secure footing.
Turkey’sgreat authority in the wider Middle East is vitally important to Europe (and probably greater than its own). From Syria to all of the Arab Spring countries, Turkey’sinfluence is highly significant, and further cooperation with the EU can onlyprove beneficial.a country that is Muslim, democratic, andoverwhelmingly young could strengthen the Unionin vital ways.

Russiahas become a different type of complicating factor for Europe.Vladimir Putin, who has now returned to the presidency, may be the same personas before, but Russiahas changed.the formation of Russia’s new government will revealmuch about power relations between conservatives and liberals. the EU has aframework – the Partnership for Modernization, negotiated with Medvedev – thatcould potentially be very positive.Russia’s accession to the World Trade Organization in 2011should also help to ensure that it plays by international rules, as occurredwith Chinawhen it joined the WTO.

Given the scale of Ukraine’s current problems anddysfunction, an elegant solution may neither be available nor sufficient.A comprehensive free-trade andassociation agreement with the Union remains unsigned,owing to the incarceration of Tymoshenko andothers. Fortunately, given the Union’s attraction for most ordinary Ukrainians,there is still hope that simple realism will persuade Yanukovych and Ukraine’sruling elite to return to a path that would allow for the association agreementto be signed.