对winbugs不是很懂 随便瞎编的,主要是想在已得到的最大似然函数去做参数估计,要怎么做啊,有没有哪位高手能指导一下下,万分感谢啊!
model
{
for(i in 1:K)
{
mu1[i]<-b1+a1*exp(c1*T[i])
mu2[i]<-b2+a2*exp(c2*T[i])
}
for(l in 1:n)
{
for(h in 1:c)
{
U11[l,h]<-(y11[l,h]-mu1[1]/(sigma1)
U12[l,h]<-(y12[l,h]-mu1[2])/(sigma1)
U13[l,h]<-(y13[l,h]-mu1[3]/(sigma1)
U14[l,h]<-(y14[l,h]-mu1[4]/(sigma1)
U21[l,h]<-(y21[l,h]-mu2[1]/(sigma2)
U22[l,h]<-(y22[l,h]-mu2[2]/(sigma2)
U23[l,h]<-(y23[l,h]-mu2[3]/(sigma2)
U24[l,h]<-(y24[l,h]-mu2[4]/(sigma2)
U11[l,h]~dnorm(0,1)
U12[l,h]~dnorm(0,1)
U13[l,h]~dnorm(0,1)
U14[l,h]~dnorm(0,1)
U21[l,h]~dnorm(0,1)
U22[l,h]~dnorm(0,1)
U23[l,h]~dnorm(0,1)
U24[l,h]~dnorm(0,1)
u11[l,h]<-phi(U11[l,h],0,1)
u12[l,h]<-phi(U12[i,h],0,1)
u13[l,h]<-phi(U13[l,h],0,1)
u14[l,h]<-phi(U14[l,h],0,1)
u21[l,h]<-phi(U21[l,h],0,1)
u22[l,h]<-phi(U22[l,h],0,1)
u23[l,h]<-phi(U23[l,h],0,1)
u24[l,h]<-phi(U24[l,h],0,1)
c1[l,h]<(-alpha*(1-exp(-alpha))*(exp(-alpha*(u11[l,h]+u21[l,h]))))/(((1-exp(-alhpa))-(1-exp(-alpha*(u11[l,h]))*(1-exp(-alpha*(u21[l,h])))^2)
c2[l,h]<(-alpha*(1-exp(-alpha))*(exp(-alpha*(u12[l,h]+u22[l,h]))))/(((1-exp(-alhpa))-(1-exp(-alpha*(u12[l,h]))*(1-exp(-alpha*(u22[l,h])))^2)
c3[l,h]<(-alpha*(1-exp(-alpha))*(exp(-alpha*(u13[l,h]+u23[l,h]))))/(((1-exp(-alhpa))-(1-exp(-alpha*(u13[l,h]))*(1-exp(-alpha*(u23[l,h])))^2)
c4[l,h]<(-alpha*(1-exp(-alpha))*(exp(-alpha*(u14[l,h]+u24[l,h]))))/(((1-exp(-alhpa))-(1-exp(-alpha*(u14[l,h]))*(1-exp(-alpha*(u24[l,h])))^2)
}
}
lnL.theta<-sum(log(c1[ ]))+sum(log(c2[ ]))+sum(log(c3[ ]))+sum(log(c4[ ]))-(K+n+c)*log(sqrt(2*pi))*(sigma1+sigma2)-1/2*(sum((U11[ ])^2)+sum((U12[ ])^2)+sum((U13[ ])^2)+sum((U14[ ])^2))-1/2*(sum((U21[ ])^2)+sum((U22[ ])^2)+sum((U23[ ])^2)+sum((U24[ ])^2))
#priors for regression parameters
a1~dnorm(0,0.0001)
b1~dnorm(0,0.0001)
c1~dnorm(0,0.0001)
a2~dnorm(0,0.0001)
b2~dnorm(0,0.0001)
c2~dnorm(0,0.0001)
alpha~dnorm(0,0.0001)
}