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A Behavioral Finance Approach to International Monetary and Financial Analysis I.pdf
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1. Behavioral Finance — 行为金融学
2. International Monetary — 国际货币
3. Financial Analysis — 金融分析
4. Efficient Market Theory — 有效市场理论
5. Financial Sector — 金融部门
6. Sector Efficiency — 部门效率
7. Mental Models — 心理模型
8. Financial Crises — 金融危机
9. Cognitive Biases — 认知偏差
10. Capital Flow — 资本流动
11. Open Economy — 开放经济
12. Macro Models — 宏观模型
13. Monetary Questions — 货币问题
14. Financial Questions — 金融问题
15. Impediments — 阻碍因素
16. Assumptions — 假设条件
17. Interactions — 相互作用
18. Implications — 启示
19. Evidence — 实证证据
20. Concluding Remarks — 结论评述
A Behavioral Finance Approach to International Monetary and Financial Analysis Implications and Evidence
1 Introduction 1
2 Behavioral Finance and Efficient Market Theory 4
3 Major Impediments to Financial Sector Efficiency 7
4 Examples of Faulty Mental Models Contributing
to Major Crises 16
5 Some Examples of the Interactions Among Biases 24
6 Some Applications to International Monetary
and Financial Questions 30
7 The Nature of the Capital Flow Assumptions
in the Major Open Economy Macro Models 38
8 Concluding Remarks 59
Efficient market theory has made an important contribution to economic and
financial analysis. It has become clear, however, that markets do not always
behave according to its predictions. This has given rise to efforts to help explain
why markets do not always behave efficiently. This Element analyzes some of
the key implications of taking a broad behavioral finance approach to the study
of international monetary and financial analysis.1 Beyond traditional behavioral
finance, it draws on evolutionary and complexity economics and emphasizes the
roles of uncertainty and mental models or narratives. It views behavioral finance
as a complement to, rather than a substitute for, efficient market theory. While
a rich literature on behavioral finance has developed in recent years, there have
been relatively few applications of this approach to the areas of international
money and finance.
This Element provides an overview of major implications of a behavioral
approach to topics such as the degree of international capital mobility and
financial integration, models of open economy macroeconomics, currency and
financial crises and contagion, capital flow surges and sudden stops, the discipline effects of international financial markets, the international monetary trilemma, and official intervention in foreign exchange markets.
The broad approach presented here is eclectic and emphasizes not only
behavioral biases but also the informational and cognitive limitations and
perverse incentives such as principal–agent problems that can lead markets to
behave inefficiently. This approach also draws on insights from the literature on
adaptive markets, bounded rationality, evolutionary and complexity economics,
faulty mental models, network theory, agent-based modeling, and the importance of uncertainty emphasized by Keynes and more recently by Kay and King
(2020). It also focuses on important interactions among these factors. While
these different approaches are sometimes presented as being competitors, I view
aspects of them as being largely complementary.2
There is no name generally in
use for approaches that combine elements of all of these, so I have chosen the
broad behavioral approach label despite its limitations.3
This broad behavioral finance approach taken here does not assume that
markets always behave irrationally with wild mood swings from euphoria to
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