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GS 高盛：每月外汇分析报告 4月刊
99页 2007.04 英文
The Dollar is coming under more broad-based pressure.
! European decoupling from weak US activity is becoming increasingly evident.
! Rate differentials have already narrowed substantially and will likely narrow further on our forecasts.
! Upcoming G7/IMF meeting and rising US protectionism add to political pressure for a weaker Dollar.
! Central Banks’ purchases of Euros have accelerated and become more regular than in the past couple of years.
! We keep our G3 forecasts unchanged at EUR/$ 1.35, 1.35, 1.37 and $JPY 115, 115, 105 in 3, 6 and 12 months.
! We have made changes to other currency forecasts, including the CHF, CAD, AUD, NZD, in part reflecting renewed increases in global commodity prices.
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Contents
Overview
Top 10 Trades & Current Trading Strategy i
Major FX Forecasts ii
Feature iii
Technical Analysis x
G3
US Dollar 1
Euro 3
Japanese Yen 5
Europe
British Pound 7
Norwegian Kroner 9
Polish Zloty 11
Swedish Krona 13
Swiss Franc 15
South African Rand 17
Czech Koruna 19
Hungarian Forint 20
Egyptian Pound 21
Israeli Shekel 22
Russian Ruble 23
Turkish Lira 24
Other Europe (SKK, RON) 25
Americas
Argentine Peso 27
Brazilian Real 29
Canadian Dollar 31
Mexican Peso 33
Chilean Peso 35
Peruvian New Sol 36
Other Latins (COP, VEB) 37
Asia
Australian Dollar 39
Chinese Yuan 41
Hong Kong Dollar 42
Indian Rupee 43
Korean Won 44
Malaysian Ringgit 45
New Zealand Dollar 46
Singapore Dollar 47
Taiwan Dollar 48
Thai Baht 49
Other Asian (IDR, PHP) 50
FX Analytics
Option Strategy 51
GS Sentiment Index 53
FX Slices 55
Correlation Cruncher: FX and Rates 57
GS Objective Currency Index 60
GS Trade Weighted Indices 61
GSDEER 63
G3 BBoP 64
GS Anecdotal Flows 65
Key Interest Rate Differentials 72
Risk Adjusted Returns 73
Possible Trading Ranges 74
Key Economic Data 75
Interest Rate Forecasts 79
Exchange Rate Forecasts 81
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