dynare中shock

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var y c k i l y_l w r z ;
varexo e ;
parameters beta psi delta alpha rho epsilon sigma;
model;
(1/c)=beta*(1/c(+1))*(1+r(+1)-delta);
psi*c/(1-l)=w;
c+i=y;
y=(k(-1)^alpha)*(exp(z)*l)^(1-alpha);
w=y*((epsilon-1)/epsilon)*(1-alpha)/l;
r=y*((epsilon-1)/epsilon)*alpha/k(-1);
k=i+(1-delta)*k(-1);
y_l=y/l;
z=rho*z(-1)+e;
end;
varobs y;
initval;
k=9;
c=0.76;
l=0.3;
w=2.07;
r=0.03;
z=0;
e=0;
end;

shocks;
var e; stderr sigma;
end;
estimated_params;
alpha, beta_pdf, 0.35, 0.02;
beta, beta_pdf, 0.99, 0.002;
delta, beta_pdf, 0.025, 0.003;
psi, gamma_pdf, 1.75, 0.1;
rho, beta_pdf, 0.95, 0.05;
epsilon, gamma_pdf, 10, 0.5;
sigma, inv_gamma_pdf, 0.01, inf;
end;

estimation(datafile=simuldata,mh_replic=10000);
stoch_simul(periods=2100);

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关键词：dynare shock Hock ARE SHO sigma

var y c k i l y_l w r z ;
varexo e ;
parameters beta psi delta alpha rho epsilon;

model;
(1/c)=beta*(1/c(+1))*(1+r(+1)-delta);
psi*c/(1-l)=w;
c+i=y;
y=(k(-1)^alpha)*(exp(z)*l)^(1-alpha);
w=y*((epsilon-1)/epsilon)*(1-alpha)/l;
r=y*((epsilon-1)/epsilon)*alpha/k(-1);
k=i+(1-delta)*k(-1);
y_l=y/l;
z=rho*z(-1)+e;
end;

varobs y;

initval;
k=9;
c=0.76;
l=0.3;
w=2.07;
r=0.03;
z=0;
e=0;
end;



estimated_params;
alpha, beta_pdf, 0.35, 0.02;
beta, beta_pdf, 0.99, 0.002;
delta, beta_pdf, 0.025, 0.003;
psi, gamma_pdf, 1.75, 0.1;
rho, beta_pdf, 0.95, 0.05;
epsilon, gamma_pdf, 10, 0.5;
stderr e, inv_gamma_pdf, 0.01, inf;
end;

estimation(datafile=simuldata,mh_replic=10000);
stoch_simul(periods=2100);

第一个怎么也运行不正确，错误提示：
Error in csminwel1 (line 43)
global bayestopt_

Output argument "gh" (and maybe others) not assigned during call to
"E:\matlab\dynare\4.2.5\matlab\csminwel1.m>csminwel1".

Error in dynare_estimation_1 (line 204)
            [fval,xparam1,grad,hessian_csminwel,itct,fcount,retcodehat] = ...

Error in dynare_estimation (line 62)
    dynare_estimation_1(var_list,varargin{:});

Error in est (line 140)
dynare_estimation(var_list_);

Error in dynare (line 120)
evalin('base',fname) ;
可是第二个就正确？为什么？这两个不是一样的吗？