瑞士信贷：2013年中国大宗原材料行业展望（免费）

是 否 +2 论坛币

k人 参与回答

经管之家送您一份

应届毕业生专属福利!

求职就业群

赵安豆老师微信：zhaoandou666

经管之家联合CDA

送您一个全额奖学金名额~ !

立即领取

感谢您参与论坛问题回答

经管之家送您两个论坛币！

+2 论坛币

The start of the new “norm”: If 2012 has been a year of painful transition
for China basic materials, 2013E would be the start of a new “norm”. To an
extent, 2013E probably would end better than 2012E, as destocking
pressure eases on demand, producers are better prepared for slower growth,
and price movements of basic materials would also not be as dramatic as in
2012. Yet the excess supply will stay with us, and it would not be a market
where every producer makes money, in our view. This is the time when
quality outperforms beta, a theme that may actually work finally.
■ Risks on demand and supply: We believe risks to the “slow-but-stable”
demand outlook for 2013E will be: (1) upside risk in construction demand, (2)
downside risk in manufacturing sectors, and (3) transport and rail FAI may
have overshot in the near term. In the same context, we believe the excess
capacity for the sector has become more of a structural issue, than just a
cyclical set-back. In 2013E, we estimate the incremental S/D to (1) deteriorate
for cement, Al, Cu and rare earths, (2) remain mostly unchanged for steel and
coking coal, and (3) improve for domestic thermal coal, and tungsten.
■ Stock calls: In addition to our ratings and target price changes in the basic
materials sector (Figure 11), we also initiate coverage on West China
Cement (2233.HK, OUTPERFORM, TP HK$1.75). Our preferred names in
2013E are Shenhua, Chinacoal, Jiangxi Cu and Conch. Our least preferred
stocks are Yanzhou, Chalco, and CR Cement. In the small caps, we like
WCC due to the upside risk in both margin and multiples from a low base.
We believe Chinacoal has the best risk/reward profile in terms of exposure
to the upside risk in Chinese thermal coal prices.

2012-12-06_瑞士信贷_China Basic Materials Sector：2013 outlook, the new norm.pdf (3.4 MB)

2012-12-10 09:18:00 上传

高盛：2013年黄金投资前景展望（免费）
https://bbs.pinggu.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=2151294&from^^uid=143965
瑞士信贷：2013年中国大宗原材料行业展望（免费）
https://bbs.pinggu.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=2151288&from^^uid=143965
高盛：2012年12月中国珠宝零售行业研究报告（免费）
https://bbs.pinggu.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=2152025&from^^uid=143965
高盛：2012年12月中国电信服务行业研究报告（免费）
https://bbs.pinggu.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=2152028&from^^uid=143965
高盛：2013-2014年全球大宗商品展望（免费）
https://bbs.pinggu.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=2151291&from^^uid=143965

扫码加我 拉你入群

请注明：姓名-公司-职位

以便审核进群资格，未注明则拒绝

分享5 收藏10 回帖

关键词：瑞士信贷 原材料 Construction incremental OUTPERFORMS prepared painful 原材料 demand better

have a look

多謝，不客氣了。。

顶LZ

bucuobcuo

好东西

好东东，可惜是英文的

非常不错！

感谢分享。谢谢。

支持一下