德意志银行：2013年中国海运行业投资策略（免费）

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We expect recovery over the next two
years; raising CSD target price
Market seems to have ignored seasonally lower BDI
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong
Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should
be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should
consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST
CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 072/04/2012.
Joe Liew, CFA
Research Analyst
(+65) 6423 8507
joe.liew@db.com
Sky Hong, CFA
Research Analyst
(+852) 2203 6131
sky.hong@db.com
Top picks
China Shipping Dvlpmt
(1138.HK),HKD5.13
Buy
STX Pan Ocean (028670.KS),KRW5,000.00 Buy
Companies Featured
China Shipping Dvlpmt
(1138.HK),HKD5.13
Buy
2011A 2012E 2013E
P/E (x) 19.0 234.5 30.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 14.6 42.4 16.0
Price/book (x) 0.6 0.6 0.6
STX Pan Ocean (028670.KS),KRW5,000.00 Buy
2011A 2012E 2013E
P/E (x) – – 50.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 190.3 – 16.3
Price/book (x) 0.5 0.6 0.5
China Cosco Hldgs (1919.HK),HKD4.73 Hold
2011A 2012E 2013E
P/E (x) – – 22.0
EV/EBITDA (x) – – 25.2
Price/book (x) 0.9 1.5 1.4
Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd
(2343.HK),HKD4.76
Hold
2011A 2012E 2013E
P/E (x) 17.1 – 18.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.6 15.0 8.9
Price/book (x) 0.5 0.9 0.9
Dry bulk shipping stocks have rallied 28% on average over the last month as
investors start to look forward to a potential rate recovery in coming months.
We continue to expect a more favourable rate environment y/y as supply
growth declines dramatically and China macroeconomic numbers improve.
Supply response to low rates last year has been encouraging: scrapping rates
have risen, slippage has increased and new orders have virtually disappeared.
Our top two buy picks are CSD and STX Pan Ocean.
We expect a more favourable operating environment in 2013
2012 was a difficult year for the sector, forcing players to reduce supply.
Scrapping was close to 5% of fleet in 2012, slippage was 27% and newbuild
orders declined 55% y/y. All point to supply growth dropping from 10.4% in
2012 to 6.0% in 2013E and 2.8% in 2014E. On the demand side, we are
expecting a recovery in corporate and infrastructure investments in China
which should help dry bulk. We expect dry bulk shipping companies to revert
to profitability in 2013 after losses in 2012.
CSD is our top Buy pick
We have raised our TP on China Shipping Development by 40% to HK$7/share
because of a likely recovery in both dry bulk and tanker rates over the next two
years, and this will drive earnings. We have raised our earnings forecast for
2012-2014E from RMB -494m / 446m / 845m to RMB 60m / 453m / 1,253m. At
0.6x 2013E P/B, the stock looks inexpensive to us. We like its State Owned
Enterprise (SOE) status as we think this means it enjoys financial support from
the government.
STX Pan Ocean is in our view the most leveraged to rate rises
STX Pan Ocean is now our second pick instead of Pacific Basin. After recent share
price movement, Pacific Basin is now trading at 0.9x 2013E P/B, which we think is
close to fair value and hence we downgrade our rating from Buy to Hold. STX Pan
Ocean’s 0.5x P/B looks more compelling. We have forecast a smaller 4Q net loss
of US$60m from US$89m in 3Q for STX Pan Ocean because of a 13% qoq
increase in 4Q average BDI, as well as the successful implementation of several
cost cutting measures by the company. STX Pan Ocean is the most leveraged to
rate rises. There is also the possibility that the STX group might sell the company
to a financially stronger group which would have a positive impact on investor
perception of the stock. Lastly, we have a Hold recommendation on China Cosco
because we think it is expensive at 1.3x 2013E P/B. Our target prices are based on
P/B - key risks relate to dry bulk freight rates. This report changes ratings, price
targets, and estimates for several companies under

db 中国海运 2013.pdf (668.58 KB)

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