德意志银行：2009年台湾证券市场投资策略

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 Table of Contents
Strategy Section................................................................................ 5
Asia Market Strategy.................................................................................................................6
Country sector views ................................................................................................................7
Top-down view on Asia: Near-term upside looks limited........................................................14
Sector recommendations........................................................................................................20
Economic Section............................................................................ 24
Taiwan Aa3/AA-/A+.................................................................................................................25
Company Section ............................................................................ 29
Acer Inc ................................................................................................................................. 30
Ambassador Hotel .................................................................................................................. 34
ASE ....................................................................................................................................... 38
Asustek .................................................................................................................................. 42
AU Optronics ......................................................................................................................... 46
Catcher Technology ............................................................................................................... 50
Cathay FHC ............................................................................................................................ 54
China Airlines ......................................................................................................................... 58
Chinatrust Financial ................................................................................................................ 62
CHT ....................................................................................................................................... 66
CMO ..................................................................................................................................... 70
Compal Electronics ................................................................................................................ 74
Delta Electronics .................................................................................................................... 78
Epistar ................................................................................................................................... 82
EVA Airways .......................................................................................................................... 86
Everlight ................................................................................................................................ 90
Far Eastern Dept Store ........................................................................................................... 94
Far Eastern Textile .................................................................................................................. 98
Far EasTone Telecom ...........................................................................................................102
Faraday ............................................................................................................................... 106
Farglory Development ..........................................................................................................110
First FHC .............................................................................................................................. 114
Foxconn Technology ............................................................................................................118
Fubon FHC ........................................................................................................................... 122
Giant Mfg. Co., Ltd. ............................................................................................................. 126
HTC ..................................................................................................................................... 130
Innolux ................................................................................................................................ 134
Inotera Memories ................................................................................................................ 138
LARGAN Precision ............................................................................................................... 142
MediaTek ............................................................................................................................. 146
Mega FHC ............................................................................................................................ 150
Merry Electronics ................................................................................................................. 154
Motech Industries Inc .......................................................................................................... 158
Novatek ............................................................................................................................... 162
Powerchip ............................................................................................................................ 166
President Chain Store ........................................................................................................... 170
ProMOS ............................................................................................................................... 174
Quanta ................................................................................................................................. 178
Realtek ................................................................................................................................. 182
Richtek ................................................................................................................................. 186
SAS Wafer ............................................................................................................................ 190
Shin Kong FHC...................................................................................................................... 194
Siliconware Precision ............................................................................................................ 198
Silitech ................................................................................................................................. 202
Simplo Technology................................................................................................................ 206
SinoPac Holdings .................................................................................................................. 210
Sunplus Technology.............................................................................................................. 214

Table of Contents (Cont'd)
Synnex Technology............................................................................................................... 218
Taishin Financial Hldgs.......................................................................................................... 222
Taiwan Fertilizer .................................................................................................................... 226
Taiwan Mobile....................................................................................................................... 230
TSMC................................................................................................................................... 234
UMC..................................................................................................................................... 238
Uni-President ........................................................................................................................ 242
VIA ....................................................................................................................................... 246
Wan Hai Lines Ltd................................................................................................................. 250
Yuanta FHC ...........................................................................................................................254

Asia Market Strategy
Still on the defensive
Rolling out our country level sector and stock calls
This is the first of our planned, regular publications to summarize our sector and stock views
at the country level. We hope to provide a user-friendly aggregation of recommended
weightings, top Buy and Sell picks and our preferred list of stocks. These are based on input
from each of our country teams.
China is our big Overweight call; Taiwan and Korea our Underweight picks
Country index targets remain unchanged from those published in the top-down equity
strategy piece dated November 21, 2008 ‘Asia Market Strategy: Upside is Limited but Value
is Emerging’. Sense-checked using PERs and PBRs, index targets are primarily derived from
our Gordon Growth models with changes in ROE being the primary driver. Our views have
been further refined by factoring in varying levels of further earnings downside. For the
region, we have factored in a weighted average 9% additional cut to DB’s earnings forecast.
We are Overweight China, Indonesia and Thailand. Taiwan, Philippines; Malaysia and Korea
are Underweight; the rest are Neutral.
Generally defensive posture sector-wise – we are still bearish on earnings
Larger sector views still reflect a continued bear market environment. Telecoms remains the
preferred sector, a function of defensive cash flows. Financials are a funding source, with
DB’s analysts remaining broadly Underweight for both Banks and Real Estate. With the rate
of change in estimates still accelerating y-o-y, we believe earnings downgrade momentum
has yet to bottom. DB’s estimates suggest a 9% drop in 2008F, but 1% and 13% growth in
2009F and 2010F, respectively. DB’s economists recently cut global GDP estimates to only
0.2% in 2009F, down from 1.2%. DB reflects below consensus GDP growth forecasts.
Value emerging, but minimal upside potential on a 12-month view
Arguably value is emerging. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan is down 60% from the October 2007
peak and is trading at 10x 2009F EPS, 38% below its five-year trailing mean. But with rising
uncertainty on earnings and downside risks to ROE, we believe it is too early to start
accumulating aggressively. We continue to advocate a cautious stance. With a substantial
difference between bottom-up and top-down index targets, we note that sell-side earnings
estimates and target prices still face meaningful downside revision risk to match current
unfolding macro realities.

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