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雷达卡
Loosen your seatbelts 4
2013: Another year of strong returns expected 4
Our investment strategy: Interplay of risk and growth 5
More two-way ratings dynamics in 2013 14
Flows to EM to stay strong but rotating toward equities 17
Total return expectations 19
2013 asset class outlooks 23
EXD still offering good riskreward
24
How much tighter? 24
Total return scenarios for 2013 25
EXD superior Sharpe ratio 26
Supply-and-demand dynamics 26
Strategies and top trades 27
Local rates: Decent carry and
some alpha 28
Outlook and drivers for 2013 28
Risks and scenarios 29
Strategies to begin the year 30
Supply in the local markets 32
Bond supply summary table 33
EM FX: Stay long but
selectively so 34
Fewer pitfalls in sight 34
Asia: Improving, but selectively 35
EM Equities: We expect a
strong year 38
GEMs equity are cheap 38
MSCI EM returns between 13-28% in 2013e 39
EM consumption should remain the main catalyst 40
Strategies to begin the year 40
EM Corporates: Value
remains 42
EM corporates offer attractive spread to sovereigns 42
Balance sheet strength varies significantly across regions 42
Issuance should remain strong but below record high 43
Secondary trading volumes 44
Increasing importance of the financials sector 44
2013 economic outlooks 47
Asia in 2013 48
Back in orbit, China picks up 48
Growth: Local, not global 48
Inflation: On the rise 50
Policy: Responding to inflation 51
Latin America in 2013 52
Runners versus walkers 52
Growth: A shrinking gap 52
Inflation: A mixed picture 54
Policy: Limited rates action 54
CEEMEA in 2013 56
No obvious drivers of growth 56
Growth: Monetary stimulus may offer some help 58
Inflation: Abating pressures 58
Policy: More monetary easing 59
Middle East and North Africa
in 2013 60
The ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’ 60
Growth: Oil or nothing 60
Inflation: Risks to the upside 62
Policy: FX unchanged, fiscal tightening for oil importers 62
Emerging markets elections calendar 64
Multi-asset strategy summary 65
Disclosure appendix 92
Disclaimer 96
hsbc 全球新兴市场 2013.pdf
(4.57 MB)
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