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Global macro-earnings outlook has rarely
looked more precarious
Greek equities’ valuations discount a lot,
but not the worst plausible outcome yet
We expect more volatility in the near term
to give way to a rally later in the year
More than ever, a stock-picking market:
we seek cover in larger-cap, high-quality,
sustainable franchises
Given a synchronised deep downturn and a deflation scare, the
global macro outlook has rarely looked more precarious. In this
context, the Greek economy and corporate profitability,
although appearing more resilient than European peers, have
deteriorated markedly. Additionally, it is impossible to know
when the deleveraging process (that led to such a sharp relative
de-rating for Greek stocks in 2008) will run its course and risk
appetite will stage a comeback. Thankfully, following a
tumultuous sell-off in 2008 (fully erasing gains of the past 5
years), Greek equities appear to be pricing in a lot of the bad
news. Certainly not all, though: if investors apply trough
multiple to trough earnings, further downside is possible.
The dual uncertainty over earnings and prospective multiples
makes the range of potential outcomes particularly wide. We
expect more near-term turbulence (amid a deluge of further
bad news) and an eventual rally later in the year as Greek
sovereign funding concerns ease and global policy responses
achieve some traction (alas for a subpar recovery). We prefer
to stay defensive for now, seeking cover in larger-cap, highquality
stocks with established franchises. 2009 should mark
a shift towards fundamentals-driven dispersion trades.
目录
Investment summary 3
2008: Annus horribilis 7
Participation of foreign
investors has declined 9
Greece increasingly becomes
a macro-play 12
Greek earnings momentum
deteriorates 17
Banks: themes to watch out
for in 2009 22
Valuations appear cheap 30
Market outlook 35
Top picks for 2009 40
A historic analogy 46
Company profiles 49
National Bank of Greece 50
OPAP 54
OTE 58
Public Power Corporation 62
Jumbo 66
Terna Energy 70
Metka 74
Motor Oil Hellas 78
Forthnet 82
Disclosure appendix 88
Disclaimer 91
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