发帖
雷达卡
Site visits in Beijing, Rudong, and Zhangjiagang
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Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong
Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should
be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should
consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST
CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 072/04/2012.
Eric Cheng, CFA
Research Analyst
(+852) 2203 6202
eric-ct.cheng@db.com
Michael Tong, CFA
Research Analyst
(+852) 2203 6167
michael.tong@db.com
Kai-Ting Wong, CFA
Research Analyst
(+852) 2203 6235
kai-ting.wong@db.com
Companies Featured
Kunlun Energy (0135.HK),HKD17.12 Buy
2011A 2012E 2013E
P/E (x) 15.43 18.56 15.79
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.0 8.5 6.7
Price/book (x) 2.6 3.0 2.6
Beijing Enterprises (0392.HK),HKD52.30 Buy
2011A 2012E 2013E
P/E (x) 19.75 19.32 14.96
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.6 12.3 10.5
Price/book (x) 1.4 1.5 1.4
We visited three listed companies (Beiijing Enterprises, Beijing Jingneng, and
Kunlun Energy) and their businesses relating to natural gas transmission, gasfired
power co-generation, LNG receiving terminals, and LNG storage and
refueling station facilities. We see upside risks from the capacity expansion of
the Shaanxi-Beijing Pipelines, as the planned capacity of the No.4 Pipeline may
reach 30bcm p.a. (vs. 10-15bcm p.a. discussed previously). Such expansion
will be positive to Beijing Enterprises (BJE) and Kunlun Energy, in our view.
Greater-than-expected expansion likely at the Shaanxi-Beijing No.4 Pipeline
The Shaanxi-Beijing No.4 Pipeline is still at the planning stage and has not yet
been approved by the NDRC. Under the current plan, the No. 4 Pipeline will
have a designed gas transmission capacity of 30bcm p.a. (double the 10-
15bcm p.a. capacity we previously expected; it will raise the transmission
capacity by a further 80-90%). The preliminary estimated investment cost
could be c.RMB20-25bn and we believe the capex can be covered by internally
generated cash flow from the No.1-3 Pipelines (assuming a 70%/30%
debt/equity split).
Capacity at the LNG receiving terminal not yet fully ramped up
The Jiangsu Rudong LNG receiving terminal processed c.2.35m tons of LNG in
2012, which represents c.67% capacity utilization. We believe the plant is
unlikely to reach full utilization until 2014 before PetroChina’s other long-term
LNG contract comes into effect. The terminal plans include the investment of a
further RMB1.1bn on the phase II project, which will expand its capacity to
6.5m tons p.a. by 2014 (currently 3.5m tons p.a.). The tariff setting mechanism
is based on a return on investment of 8% assuming full utilization.
Significant growth in the vehicle LNG market in Beijing
We also visited Beijing Gas’ pilot LNG storage and refueling station facilities in
Beijing. Vehicle CNG/LNG consumption is likely to increase significantly to
c.1.5bcm p.a. by 2015, especially given the strong push from the government
to promote its usage as a means to curb the rising air pollution problem in
Beijing. The current plan for Beijing is to add 20 LNG and 20 CNG refueling
stations in 2013, and add a total of 100 LNG and 100 CNG refueling stations by
2015.
Construction of Beijing’s gas-fired power plants on-track
Construction of Beijing’s gas-fired cogeneration projects looks to be on-track,
with the Gaoantun project (845MW) and the Gaojing project (1,308MW) both
expected to be completed by end-2013. This should be the key growth driver
for Beijing’s natural gas consumption in 2014. Pass-through of a potential
higher upstream natural gas cost will be one of the key risks and a major
overhang in 2013, though the government should in principle allow the gasfired
power plants to adjust their on-grid power and heating tariffs accordingly.
Sector valuation and risks
We value the sector using DCF primarily. Key risks include an inability to pass
through rising upstream gas costs, lower-than-expected gas sales volume,
connection fees and margins, value-accretive acquisitions, and regulation on
tariff/return in the long term (see p.10 for details).
德意志银行：2013年1月中国天然气行业调研报告.pdf
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