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recommends reducing, but not
eliminating gold exposure
We think Zijin is the stock that serves
the purpose with exposure to both gold
and copper
Zijin is our preferred pick (OW(V), TP of
HKD3.82 from HKD3.85); reiterate OW(V)
on Zhaojin (TP of HKD14.94 from
HKD16.5) primarily on valuation
Reduce gold exposure
In The Allocator: Receding tail risks, published on 28
January 2013, HSBC’s global asset allocation team has
made changes to its strategic and tactical asset allocation.
Specifically, they almost halved the weight of gold to 7% in
the total portfolio, driven by receding systematic risk.
Lower gold but higher copper prices in 2013e
HSBC commodities analysts cut 2013e gold price forecasts
by 5% whilst HSBC Metals & Mining raised copper prices
by 7%. As a result, we cut our target price by 9% for Zhaojin
and marginally (1%) for Zijin.
Zijin (OW(V)) is our preferred pick
Although our asset allocation team recommends reducing
gold exposure on receding tail risk, they do recommend
keeping some (7%) exposure (ie not eliminating all exposure
to gold). Zijin is an interesting way of acting on this
recommendation as the company’s earnings are sensitive to
both gold and copper, with copper being a beneficiary of any
improvement in macro sentiment or fundamentals. In
addition, we believe that Zijin offers re-rating potential, now
that the company has cleaned the local river (after a waste
water leakage accident), enhanced production safety
facilities and re-started the hydro-metallurgical copper plant.
Our earnings forecasts are in line with consensus in 2012e
but 5% below in 2013e. Our revised Zijin target price of
HKD3.82 is 4% above consensus.
We maintain Overweight (V) on Zhaojin primarily on
valuation. Our earnings forecasts are 5-7% below consensus
in 2012-13e and our target price is 6% below consensus.
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