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2008 was a tough year for the French
banks. Q4 results are likely to be poor.
But we believe the future is brighter.
French domestic operations should
prove relatively defensive, CIBM could
benefit from reduced write-downs and
volatility. We believe fears over the
impact of weak emerging European
economies are overdone.
Weak capital positions remain an issue
though. Hence, while we raise our rating
on Socgen to Overweight (V), we retain
our other ratings – BNP and CASA both
Neutral (V), Natixis Underweight (V)
Don’t look back
2008 was an annus horribilis for French banks, with asset
write-downs and extreme market volatility weighing on
results. Q408 is similarly likely to look awful. But
fortunately, equity markets are forward rather than backward
looking. And when we consider the outlook for the French
banks in 2009, it’s with cautious optimism.
In this note we consider the French and emerging European
banking positions, the outlook for CIBM and provide an
update on our thinking on the capital positions. Our ultimate
conclusion is that the French banks could prove to be
defensive plays within our European banking universe. Our
price targets are falling across the board to reflect recent
capital market weakness and earnings downgrades. But even
so we’re starting to see more appeal in current valuations
and we raise Socgen from Neutral (V) to Overweight (V).
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