渣打银行：2013年2月中国汽车经销商行业研究报告（免费）

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We raise our 2013/2014 earnings estimates to reflect likely new car margin improvement and
lower financing costs in light of inventory destocking, although we lower our earnings
estimates for 2012 as new car margins remained weak in 3Q12 and only started to recover
in 4Q12.
 We raise our new car margin assumption as we now expect new car margin to edge up
about 0.5ppt while we previously expected it to be flattish YoY. We estimate further earnings
upside of 8-10% if new car margin is 1ppt higher YoY in 2013.
 Major luxury automakers have yet to announce their 2013 sales targets, but our checks with
dealers indicate that major OEMs expect sales growth of about 20% YoY. We expect overall
luxury car sales volume to slow to about 20% YoY in 2013 from 25% in 2012.
 We maintain our Outperform ratings on Baoxin Auto Group (Baoxin) and Dah Chong Hong
and upgrade China ZhengTong Auto Services (ZhengTong) to Outperform from In-Line. We
downgrade Zhongsheng to In-Line from Outperform. We continue to prefer Baoxin due to its
strong brand portfolio, better operational efficiency and faster network growth.
Strong earnings growth in 2013E, driven by margin recovery and after-sales services
 Our checks with luxury auto dealers indicate that inventory days eased to 30-40 days by end-
2012 for luxury brands, compared with the peak level of 60-70 days. Dealers also noted that
prices are edging up due to better seasonality and lower inventory levels. Vehicle imports
have been on a declining trend since September 2012, indicating inventory levels at
dealerships should be easing. Our recent channel checks in Chengdu indicate that inventory
levels for luxury cars are below normal levels while those for Japanese cars have normalised,
see China autos and dealership: Kicking the tyres in Chengdu, published 4 February 2013.
 We believe new car margin will be the major source of earnings upside in 2013. We lower our
2012 earnings forecasts due to weaker-than-expected 3Q12 margins, but raise our 2013-14
earnings forecasts as we raise our new car margin assumptions by 0.5ppt and lower our
interest expense assumptions.
 While we think the degree of new car margin improvement may be uncertain in 2013, we
believe dealerships‟ after-sales business is less competitive than automakers‟ new car sales
business. We think earnings growth in 2013 will be driven by better new car margins and aftersales
services, which contribute c.40-50% of dealers‟ gross profits.

渣打 中国汽车经销商 1302.pdf (539.49 KB)

2013-2-5 15:31:57 上传

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