瑞银-最新A股投资策略[13.02.06]免费

是 否 +2 论坛币

k人 参与回答

经管之家送您一份

应届毕业生专属福利!

求职就业群

赵安豆老师微信：zhaoandou666

经管之家联合CDA

送您一个全额奖学金名额~ !

立即领取

感谢您参与论坛问题回答

经管之家送您两个论坛币！

+2 论坛币

UBS  Investment Research

A-share  Equity Strategy

If    there is a change to the one child policy                 ·  If    there is a change to the one child policy     There has been heavy media coverage on the possibility    of changes to the one child policy. Given China’s demographics and birth    rate, its newborn population should peak in 2013. We cannot predict whether    there will be any change to the policy; here we discuss the potential    impact if changes occur. If the policy is relaxed, we would expect China’s    birth rate to rise, with the peak birth period lasting 4-5 years, and a    peak child-raising period of at least 9-10 years. We would expect a larger    rise in newborns in cities and developed provinces, which have stronger    buying power.     ·     Sensitivity analysis on an increase in the newborn population     If the one child policy is relaxed and leads to a 10%    rise in the birth rate of second children, then China’s newborn population    may increase c3%. And if the birth rate of second children rises by 20%,    China’s newborn population may increase 6%+.     ·     Demand for infant/child goods (milk, diapers, toys) to grow    substantially     We are most positive on milk powder as the largest    beneficiary of a rising infant/ children population, and the sector’s    situation is improving. Our top picks are Yili and Beingmate. We also like    toys; listed makers rely on exports, and higher earnings will not be    evident near term, but long term, companies with strong R&D and popular    brands may transform and benefit. We favour Xinghui Auto Model.     ·     Change in family structure may spur demand for home & auto    upgrades     More families would shift from 3- to 4-member    households, lifting demand for home and vehicle upgrades. Thanks to their    roomy comfort, MPVs may have growth potential in the family-use market; we    like JAC here. Binjiang Real Estate’s homes are medium/large-sized; it may    benefit from larger families, though its business is very dependent on the    Hangzhou market, limiting its long-term outlook.

本帖隐藏的内容

UBS-A-share Equity Strategy-130206.pdf (615.22 KB)

2013-2-6 14:07:28 上传

扫码加我 拉你入群

请注明：姓名-公司-职位

以便审核进群资格，未注明则拒绝

分享0 收藏0 回帖

关键词：A股投资策略 投资策略 Demographics real estate Possibility 投资策略

waht

绸一下。

dcefewfewfew

cfewfefewfew

See.See..................

kankan

thank you

看看

kankan