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DB 德银：中国资本品－中国工业每月报告
（30页）09.20 20 September 2007
Capital Goods China Industrials Monthly
Macro outlook
Once again, macro growth forecasts for China are being revised upwards. This
month, DB economists increased 2007 and 2008 GDP growth forecasts to 11.4%
and 10.2% from 10.7% and 9.7% respectively, driven by strength in H107 data, an
upwards revision of 2006 data by the State Statistical Bureau, and robust Fixed
Asset Investment (FAI) growth. DB economists also raised 2007 and 2008 FAI
growth forecasts to 25.0% and 20.0%, from 24.0% and 18.0% respectively, and
Industrial production forecasts to 17.5% and 16.5%, from 16.7% and 14.8%
respectively.
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Table of Contents
Investment thesis .............................................................................. 3
Introduction..............................................................................................................................3
Industrial indicators ...................................................................................................................3
Feature article: Beijing Olympics...............................................................................................3
Industrial news-flow..................................................................................................................3
China forecasts .................................................................................. 4
The big picture................................................................................... 6
Industrial value added ...............................................................................................................6
Electricity generation ................................................................................................................6
Cargo freight ton-kilometres .....................................................................................................7
Urban fixed asset investment ...................................................................................................8
OECD composite leading indicator ...........................................................................................8
Feature article: Beijing Olympics and Shanghai Expo.................. 10
Introduction............................................................................................................................10
Beijing Olympics .....................................................................................................................11
Shanghai Expo ........................................................................................................................17
Industrial news flow........................................................................ 21
Power generation....................................................................................................................21
Northeast Region Revitalization ..............................................................................................21
Railway...................................................................................................................................22
Clean energy ...........................................................................................................................23
General industry......................................................................................................................23
Company news .......................................................................................................................24
Valuation & risks ............................................................................. 26
Europe....................................................................................................................................26
US ..........................................................................................................................................26
Risks ......................................................................................................................................26
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