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雷达卡
In our 31 March quarterly forecast update, we highlighted that the global monetary policyenvironment was slowly becoming less easy. The BoJ's and the ECB'sreluctance to introduce further policy accommodation this week seems to fit thattheme. Fortunately (or arguably because of it) that inaction has come at a timewhen the signals from the real economy appear to be improving – the Q1slowdown scare in the US in particular looks to be fading as anticipated.The FOMC minutes released yesterday evening (9 April) have also providedsome succour to risky assets and, at the margin, precious metals. With 10-yearyields looking like they may head back down to the bottom of the current rangearound 2.60%, gold could extend the current bounce to the $1,330/40 area butwe suggest investors should consider shorting it again at that point.We would caution against overinterpreting the headline Chinese trade numbersreleased overnight. Year-on-year comparisons are largely meaningless due tothe large distortions to Q1 2013 figures, which we believe were grosslyoverinflated by falsified trade invoices. Underlying exports appear largely stable.
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