又到了每周金融英语分享的时间了
小冰这回给大家带来的话题是关于中国股市神秘的2000点~
屹立不倒的2000点大关,被评论家称之为“A股具有传奇色彩的点位”。有机构统计,今年以来上证指数已6次跌破2000点,但每次破位后均会展开不同程度的反抽。分析人士认为,如果看跌人气不断蔓延、2000点长期失守,对于经济转型中的社会资源配置将十分不利。更有唯恐天下不乱的外媒发表“惊悚”言论表示,2000点对中国股市具有深远的战略意义,倘若股市长期下跌将会引发政治和社会动荡。
为什么2000点具有如此神秘的力量?与其说它是A股的“政策底”,其实更像是股市在特定时点的“囚徒困境”。对于目前市场上的多方和空方而言,正处在一个“纠结”的博弈状态。这里的“纠结”,不仅源于难以判断对手的想法和可能“出击”的时间,也因为2000点大关“屡破不破”的强大威慑力。由于当前宏观经济处于结构调整的阵痛期,市场预期也在消息面的风吹草动下不断变化。虽然2000点是多头的心理底线,但在经济下行、资金面收紧、IPO重启等压力叠加下,多头并不敢大举进攻。而空头在这个关键点位附近同样不敢轻举妄动。今年以来政策面频吹利好,横空出世的新“国九条”被誉为促进中国资本市场长期健康发展的顶层设计纲领。可以预见的是,一旦后续细则接连落地、实质性利好出台,市场可能随时会展开一轮反弹。
英语分享来了~
中文翻译回复可见~
Source:
If there's one mystery about China's volatile stock market, it's the legendary and miraculously resilient 2000 points of the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index.
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如果说跌宕起伏的中国股市有什么神秘之处,那无疑是上证综合指数屹立不倒的2000点大关,这是个带有传奇色彩的奇迹般的点位。Trading on Wednesday was no exception, with the index dipping below the 2000 level in the morning, before reclaiming the lost ground after the lunch break.
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周三的交易亦不例外,当日上证综指早盘一度跌破2000点,但午盘后收复失地。
Time and time again, since the index climbed above that level 14 years ago, the index has rarely stayed under 2000 for long, despite the poor performance of China's stocks since the global financial crisis in 2008.
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自从14年前站上2000点以来,上证综指曾一次次地跌破这个点位,但很少长时间保持在2000点以下,尽管2008年全球金融危机爆发后中国股市表现一直不如人意。
It is widely viewed as the limit of Beijing's tolerance of how far a bearish mood can extend in a market dominated by retail investors, and out of fear of any political and social instability that any prolonged selloff could trigger.
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2000点被普遍视为中国政府的一个底线,一旦超过这个底线,政府便无法容忍以散户为主的中国股市的看跌人气继续蔓延,政府担心的是,股市长期下跌会引发政治和社会动荡。
Whenever there are signs that the market threatens to break or stay under that crucial level for long, there is action by authorities or mysterious trading activity that keeps the index buoyant.
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以往,每当有迹象显示股市可能跌破或长时间保持在2000点以下,当局就会采取行动或出现神秘交易支撑股市。
On many occasions the government has swiftly rolled out market supportive measures ranging from a mini economic stimulus to easing financing curbs on property developers. On other occasions, state-controlled media has delivered messages that talk up the future of both the economy and equities investment.
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在许多情况下,中国政府迅速推出了救市措施,例如小型经济刺激举措、放松房地产开发商的融资限制等。另外一些时候,官方媒体对外界传递信号,热烈谈论经济和股市投资的未来。
On Wednesday, the index sank as low as 1991.06 due to persistent worries about a slowing Chinese economy, a theme that's pushed the index down 4.3% this year. But the market later in the trading day rallied after China's economic planning agency released details of a plan to let private capital take part in major infrastructure projects to help boost growth.
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周三,上证综指盘中一度跌至1991.06点,原因是围绕中国经济增长放缓的担忧挥之不去。受这一主题拖累,上证综指今年迄今累计下跌了4.3%。不过,在中国经济规划部门发布有关鼓励民营资本参与大型基建项目的计划细节后,中国股市出现了反弹。
'At the moment, the 2000 level does appear to be a 'policy bottom' for the market. Since the market fell below that level in late March, the authorities have unveiled a series of policy measures aimed at boosting sentiment,' said Huang Cendong, an analyst at Sinolink Securities.
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国金证券(Sinolink Securities)分析师黄岑栋称,目前阶段,对市场来说,2000点似乎的确是“政策底部”;在上证综指3月底跌破2000点大关后,中国政府出台了一连串旨在提振股市人气的政策措施。
Back on March 20, the index fell to 1993.48 but the very next day, the market staged a strong comeback as news circulated that the securities regulator would launch a long-awaited pilot project to let major blue chips issue preferred shares, a fresh fundraising channel for cash-hungry companies like banks.
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上证综指3月20日跌至1993.48点,但在3月21日强劲反弹,因市场传闻称证监会将推出市场期待已久的试点计划,允许大型蓝筹企业发行优先股。对银行这类渴求资金的企业来说,发行优先股将成为一个新的融资渠道。
In a similar incident on May 9, the Shanghai index fell to an intraday low of 2001.30. After the market's close, the State Council, China's cabinet, unveiled plans to reform the country's financial markets, including overhauling the nation's much-criticized system of initial public offerings, spurring the market up 2.1% the next day.
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5月9日历史又一次重演,上证综指跌至日内低点2001.30点。而收盘后,中国国务院推出了金融市场改革计划,其中包括改革中国备受批评的新股发行机制,第二天股市受到提振,大涨2.1%。
On other occasions, no policy measures were taken but the market enjoyed sharp turnarounds within the last few hours of trading that helped put the battered index back above the 2000 level. Traders have attributed such dramatic moves to suspected buying from powerful investors such as state pension funds and asset managers with close ties to the government.
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在其他情况下,虽然没有政策措施的支持,但大盘在交易日的最后几个小时大幅反转,帮助受压的股指重回2000点之上。交易员们将这样剧烈震荡的走势归因于实力强大投资者的疑似买盘,如中国社保基金和与政府关系密切的资产管理公司。
In some way, the 2000 level of the Shanghai index carries the same kind of symbolic significance attached to the minimum economic growth rates, ranging from 7.2% to 7.5%, for a government that needs to rely on a booming economy and stock market to maintain job creation and social stability.
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在某种程度上,上证综指2000点的水平与中国经济7.2%-7.5%的最低增长率有着同样重大的象征意义,因为政府需要依靠经济和股市的繁荣来创造就业和维持社会稳定。
'However, it's impossible to protect the 'policy bottom' all the time. There will always be a 'market bottom' below that. In that respect, only when economic fundamentals show signs of improvement can the stock market really turn around,' said Mr. Huang.
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但黄岑栋称,永远守住“政策底部”不太现实,总会有低于政策底部的市场底部。他说,从这一角度看,只有当经济基本面出现好转迹象时,股市才能真正复苏。
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