我在用R中rugarch包uargchfit拟合garch模型后得到结果如下:
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* GARCH Model Fit *
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Conditional Variance Dynamics
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GARCH Model : sGARCH(1,1)
Mean Model : ARFIMA(1,0,1)
Distribution : std
Optimal Parameters
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Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
mu -0.065186 0.025870 -2.5197 0.011744
ar1 -0.533832 0.222276 -2.4017 0.016321
ma1 0.587081 0.213037 2.7558 0.005855
omega 0.037920 0.012231 3.1003 0.001933
alpha1 0.093063 0.013322 6.9858 0.000000
beta1 0.900442 0.013272 67.8431 0.000000
shape 5.977548 0.658367 9.0793 0.000000
Robust Standard Errors:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
mu -0.065186 0.032485 -2.0066 0.044790
ar1 -0.533832 0.204255 -2.6136 0.008960
ma1 0.587081 0.197354 2.9748 0.002932
omega 0.037920 0.014528 2.6101 0.009052
alpha1 0.093063 0.014831 6.2749 0.000000
beta1 0.900442 0.015203 59.2268 0.000000
shape 5.977548 0.604537 9.8878 0.000000
LogLikelihood : -5512.035
Information Criteria
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Akaike 3.7493
Bayes 3.7636
Shibata 3.7493
Hannan-Quinn 3.7545
Q-Statistics on Standardized Residuals
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statistic p-value
Lag[1] 1.719 0.189776
Lag[p+q+1][3] 7.575 0.005919
Lag[p+q+5][7] 16.102 0.006558
d.o.f=2
H0 : No serial correlation
Q-Statistics on Standardized Squared Residuals
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statistic p-value
Lag[1] 0.01407 0.9056
Lag[p+q+1][3] 0.69555 0.4043
Lag[p+q+5][7] 2.80058 0.7307
d.o.f=2
ARCH LM Tests
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Statistic DoF P-Value
ARCH Lag[2] 0.684 2 0.7103
ARCH Lag[5] 1.290 5 0.9360
ARCH Lag[10] 3.871 10 0.9530
Nyblom stability test
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Joint Statistic: 3.6585
Individual Statistics:
mu 0.9690
ar1 0.0941
ma1 0.1040
omega 1.2244
alpha1 0.8088
beta1 1.3281
shape 0.9257
Asymptotic Critical Values (10% 5% 1%)
Joint Statistic: 1.69 1.9 2.35
Individual Statistic: 0.35 0.47 0.75
Sign Bias Test
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t-value prob sig
Sign Bias 2.8083 0.005013 ***
Negative Sign Bias 0.0212 0.983085
Positive Sign Bias 0.6948 0.487216
Joint Effect 12.9290 0.004793 ***
Adjusted Pearson Goodness-of-Fit Test:
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group statistic p-value(g-1)
1 20 53501 0
2 30 82661 0
3 40 111908 0
4 50 141043 0
Elapsed time : 0.752043
想问一下输出结果最后面的Adjusted Pearson Goodness-of-Fit Test检验结果p值小
是说模型拟合不好吗?其检验原理是什么?
希望得到大神指点!!!