【摩根士丹利】万科H股首次报告-非常详尽，跟大魔学习怎么分析地产股

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China Vanke Co., Ltd
Asia Insight: Transformation
drives ROE; Initiate H-shares
at OW
With Vanke due to list its H-shares on June 25, we
expect many investors will be critically assessing
the company for the first time. We view it as a core
holding in Chinese portfolios and see 26% upside to
our HK$15.60 price target. We resume coverage of
the A-shares with a PT of Rmb12.5.
Strategic transformation to drive stock re-rating: In
this report, we critically assess the company’s recent
strategic shift, and explicitly value its fee charging joint
venture and recent land purchases. Unlike many in the
market, we conclude that the strategic transformation
from a high capital recycling business model into a
fee-based one will drive a significant re-rating. We
expect ROE to expand from sub-20% to mid-twenties,
as the company reduces its direct capital commitment in
projects and revamps management incentives. This
transition is not well understood, in our view, and thus
not yet in the share price. We see growth in JV/AUM as
a new catalyst for Vanke’s share price.
A new core holding; prefer Vanke over COLI: We
also assess Vanke’s stock attributes versus perennial
industry favourite COLI. The two stocks are quite
comparable, but Vanke beats COLI’s contracted sales,
revenue lock-in, growth outlook and valuation. We
conclude that Vanke can earn a premium multiple to
COLI over time, whereas currently we have it at a 21%
discount. In what is a tough industry at present, we think
reduced competition from more speculative developers
offers Vanke a great opportunity to gain market share.
Ongoing structural and operational improvement:
Vanke rolled out the “business partner ownership
scheme” to help better align management and
shareholders’ interest in the company/project levels.
Vanke should continue to raise its offshore debt under
its US$2bn MTN programme to lower its borrowing cost
amid a mere ~4% medium-term loan rate. Its YTD May
sales grew 16% to outperform most of the major player

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