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雷达卡
Table of Contents
Executive summary ...................................................................................................3
Outlook ....................................................................................................................................3
Valuations.................................................................................................................................3
Risks ........................................................................................................................................3
From oversupply to shortage ...................................................................................4
Key points ................................................................................................................................4
Strong infrastructure spending will continue through 2010 ......................................................4
“Window guidance” unlikely to have a major impact on FAI....................................................6
Urbanization and housing upgrades: key drivers for cement demand in the real estate sector 7
New housing policy to increase supply.....................................................................................8
Cement supply expected to tighten..........................................................................................9
Supply/demand in FY08/09: shortage expected......................................................................13
Supply/demand in FY08/09: a bottom-up approach ................................................................15
Consolidating to control – Following the India example ....................................18
Key points ...............................................................................................................................18
The India experience...............................................................................................................18
China and India cement markets compared............................................................................20
Consolidation is reshaping the Chinese cement industry .......................................................21
Costs rising, but manageable.................................................................................24
Key points ...............................................................................................................................24
Rising coal price to be offset by cement price rise.................................................................24
Cost saving from cogeneration more than offsets a potential power tariff hike .....................25
More room for cost cuts .........................................................................................................27
Regional analysis .....................................................................................................29
Key points ...............................................................................................................................29
Location is key ........................................................................................................................29
Southwest China market.........................................................................................................34
North China market .................................................................................................................36
Central & South China market.................................................................................................39
East China market ...................................................................................................................41
Northeast China market ..........................................................................................................43
Northwest China market .........................................................................................................45
Valuations.................................................................................................................47
Time to buy Chinese cement players......................................................................................47
Chinese cement: higher margins, lower EV/tonne..................................................................48
Chinese cement should trade at a premium ...........................................................................48
Valuations rich on FY08 PER, but very attractive PEG.............................................................52
CNBM/Conch Cement: Residual income model-based TPs....................................................52
TCC/ACC: The SOTP-based TPs..............................................................................................53
Where is the risk? ....................................................................................................54
Factors that could negatively impact our valuations ...............................................................54
China´s top cement players ....................................................................................55
Top 60 cement producers supported by the central government...........................................55
Company page .........................................................................................................57
China Building Materials..........................................................................................................58
Anhui Conch Cement..............................................................................................................69
Taiwan Cement .......................................................................................................................76
Asia Cement ...........................................................................................................................83
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