发帖
雷达卡
Commodities remain in favour
Over the past month commodity prices have generally strengthened further,
against a backdrop of continued supply issues, a weaker US$ and strong
speculative interest. With the OECD macro backdrop remaining unclear we
continue to prefer exposure to bulks (iron ore, coal, ferro-alloys) and precious
metals where we expect tightness to run through 2009. We expect continued
volatility in the base metals, with aluminium and copper preferred. Top picks are
Anglo American, Vedanta Resources, Aquarius Platinum and Norsk Hydro.
request that a copy of the IR be sent to them.
DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1
Emerging Themes
Global Markets Research Company
March edition bulks up
In this edition of the Commodities Chartbook we add an additional series of charts
(25) including an Oil section to broaden coverage.
BRICS holding in face of OECD turmoil
While our global economists continue to reduce global growth forecasts (now
+3.6% in 2008 and +3.9% 2009) and look for the US fed funds to hit 1.5% in the
coming months, BRICS demand is holding firm. By 2010E BRICS demand for most
commodities will range between 40-50% of world demand, driven by China. Our
analysis shows Chinese consumption increasingly exceeding production, and
domestic vertical integration declining even further. This requires ever larger
imports of raw materials (e.g. copper & zinc concentrate, bauxite, iron ore, nickel)
which will continue to underpin prices beyond the current phase of uncertainty.
The European mining sector is trading on 10x earnings
The sector is trading on 10x 2009 earnings and a P/NPV of 1.1x. We continue to
see value in the diversified bulk commodity producers – Buy Anglo, Vedanta,
Aquarius Platinum and Norsk Hydro.
Table of Contents
Macro data – Long term analysis ..............................................................................................3
Commodities – Pricing............................................................................................................10
Base metals ............................................................................................................................14
Precious Metals ......................................................................................................................26
Steel & Steel-making raw materials ........................................................................................29
Energy....................................................................................................................................34
Appendix A: Economic assumptions and commodity forecasts.............................................38
208880.pdf
(1.05 MB, 需要: 20 个论坛币)
京公网安备 11010802022788号
