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Table of Content
1. Analysis of Prospect of Global Aluminum Consumption........................5
1.1. Aluminum Is an Important Raw Material of Basic Industry....................5
1.2. The Growth Potential of China Aluminum Consumption Is Huge.............8
1.3. The Substitution of Aluminum to Other Nonferrous Metals Is Emerging 12
2. Analysis on China Electrolytic Aluminum Industry .............................15
2.1. Domestic Primary Aluminum Output Is Still Increasing Rapidly............ 15
2.2. The Macro Control of the State on Electrolytic Aluminum Industry Is Still
Lasting.............................................................................................. 20
3 Analysis on China Aluminum Oxide Industry.......................................23
3.1 Domestic Aluminum Oxide Output is still increasing rapidly ................. 23
3.2 The Price of Aluminum Oxide is Hard to Decrease a Lot ...................... 26
4 Analysis on Supply of Aluminum Ores .................................................29
4.1 The Global Aluminum Ore Resources are abundant............................. 29
4.2 The Supply of Aluminum Ores in China still has Hidden Troubles .......... 31
5. The price of Aluminum is expected to be maintained in a High Level .35
5.1 Cost of Primary Aluminum Increases Drastically................................. 35
5.2 Consumption to keep rapid growth .................................................. 38
5.3 Inventories could not see Large Increase .......................................... 41
Figure Index
Figure 1: Global Aluminum Consumption Structure in 2004 ........................5
Figure 2: China Aluminum Consumption Structure in 2004 .........................6
Figure 3: Growth of Global Main Nonferrous Metals Consumption.................7
Figure 4: Changes of Aluminum Applied in Light Cars in North America ........7
Figure 5: Global Contribution Rate of China Primary Aluminum Consumption
Growth ..........................................................................................8
Figure 6: Growth of Global Primary Aluminum Consumption .......................9
Figure 7: Average Aluminum Consumption Per Capita and Urbanization Rate in
U.S ............................................................................................. 10
Figure 8: Average Aluminum Consumption Per Capita and Urbanization Rate in
China .......................................................................................... 11
Figure 9: Growth Rate of Main Nonferrous Metals Since 2003.................... 12
Figure 10: Proportions of Aluminum Price vs. Copper Price and Aluminum Price
vs. Zinc Price................................................................................ 13
Figure 11: Annual Production Yield of Primary Aluminum in China.............. 16
Figure 12: Forecast of Output Growth and Production Capacity Utilization Rate
of Primary Aluminum in China......................................................... 17
Figure 13: Output Growth and External Dependency of China Aluminum Oxide
.................................................................................................. 24
Figure 14: Spot Price Tendency of Domestic Aluminum Oxides .................. 27
Figure 15: Reserves Distribution of Global Aluminum Ores........................ 29
Figure 16: Output Distribution of Global Aluminum Ores in 2006 ............... 30
Figure 17: Import Volume and External Dependency of China Aluminum Ores
.................................................................................................. 32
Figure 18: Import Proportion of Aluminum Ores from Indonesia in China .... 33
Figure 19: Import Volume and Price Tendency of Aluminum Ores in China .. 34
Figure 20: Production Costs in Cash of Global Electrolytic Aluminum .......... 36
Figure 21: Average Electricity Price of Global Primary Aluminum Production in
2005 ........................................................................................... 37
Figure 22: Year-On-Year Increase of Value Added of Large-scaled Industrial
Enterprises in China ...................................................................... 39
Figure 23: Growth Rate of Fixed Asset and Real Estate Investment in China (%)
.................................................................................................. 39
Figure 24: Rapid Growth of Main Aluminum Consumption Fields in China .... 40
Figure 25: Aluminum Storage in Main Futures Exchanges Globally ............. 42
Table Index
Table 1: Main Expansion Plans of Electrolytic Aluminum Production Capacity
Domestically................................................................................. 17
(Thousand Ton) .................................................................................. 17
Table 2: Production Capacity and Output Forecast of Electrolytic Aluminum in
China .......................................................................................... 20
Table 3: Variation of Production Capacity and Output of Metallurgical Aluminum
Oxide in China .............................................................................. 24
Table 4: Demand-Supply Balance of Global Metallurgical Aluminum Oxide... 28
Table 5: Demand-Supply Balance of Primary Aluminum (million tons) ........ 41
Table 6: Price and Forecast of Primary Aluminum and Aluminum Oxide....... 42
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