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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月英国银行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：34
【目录或简介】：
UK Banks
RBS preferred over LLOY;
but rising tide lifts all boats
We highlight our preference for RBS over LLOY:
Investor sentiment has improved for UK banks, helped
by the improving global and UK economies and reflected
in their outperformance versus European banks so far
this year. This now appears to be a more sustainable
trend, with fears of a double dip receding. However, in
general we believe it is premature to move overweight
UK banks, and RBS in particular, until we see more
clarity on the regulatory burden and significant
improvements in revenue growth. In addition, RBS has
already been the best performer this year. In this report,
we highlight our preference for RBS over LLOY, both of
which we continue to rate Equal-weight. Barclays
(Overweight) remains our top pick in UK banks.
What’s new: We are increasing our price target for
RBS to 50p from 40p. This is driven by an improvement
in our EPS forecasts but mainly a change in
methodology to a sum of the parts with target capital, as
we now believe it will have excess capital by 2013.
While RBS and LLOY face similar issues, despite its
strong recent performance we think RBS is relatively
more attractive as i) we believe consensus expectations
for impairment reduction and an NIM increase are higher
for LLOY than RBS, ii) RBS’ asset quality is higher, iii) its
core Tier 1 at 11.35% (post liability management) is well
above its >8% target, iv) it may be able to revise up its
interim targets if the economy continues to improve, and
v) it is more diversified. In terms of valuation, LLOY is
now at our price target while RBS is ~10% below and
this excludes any upside from potential excess capital.
Many reasons to remain cautious. With an election
now scheduled for May 6, the political backdrop is
important to the banks’ performance in the near term. A
hung parliament would be most negative as it would risk
destabilising the recovery, damaging the investment
case for UK banks, but LLOY in particular, in our view,
as a more pure play UK bank. Revenue headwinds and
refinancing risks over the next few years also remain key
concerns, together with a higher regulatory burden.
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