瑞士信贷--美国航天业研究报告2007

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A NASA Budget Primer
■
Basic Overview of the NASA Market: This primer is intended to provide
longer-term investors with the basic fundamentals of the NASA market,
including key programs, funding outlook, industry participation, and growth
opportunities. We believe space is a long overlooked portion of the federal
marketplace, but, given the changes set underway by the retirement of the
Shuttle (set for 2010) we think now is the time to dig deeper into NASA.
■
Constellation to Replace Shuttle, ISS: Although the CAGR for NASA’s
projected budget is just 2.4% (’07-’12), rising from $16.8B to $18.9B, there is
expected to be tremendous change within the budget itself. This is due to
the new Constellation program, which calls for the retirement of the Space
Shuttle, to be replaced by an Apollo-like capsule (the Crew Exploration
Vehicle/CEV), and an associated new system of launch vehicles. As both
the Shuttle and International Space Station (ISS) budgets decline in NASA’s
forecasts, Constellation is slated for major funding boosts.
■
Aeronautics Takes Back-Seat to Space: NASA’s Aeronautics budget
continues to be a lower priority for the agency. Through 2012, Aeronautics
projects to remain less than 3% of the Agency’s budget. Even the Science
budget, which should continue to account for roughly one-third of the total, is
confronting a programmatic shift in focus toward Constellation.
■
ATK May Have Greatest Opportunity for Gain: Any time major
programmatic and budgetary changes occur in a marketplace, there is
potential for upheaval of incumbents and opportunities for others. Despite
the loss of the Ares I Upper Stage contract on Aug. 28 to Boeing, we still
think that, long-term (and among the stocks we cover), ATK has one of the
best chances to gain market share at NASA. If ATK can secure a place on
the heavy lift Cargo Launch Vehicle/CaLV (and we think this is all but
assured), gains could be significant. While difficult to quantify, we include
budget forecasts for the Constellation program that are compelling for ATK’s
long-term outlook, in our view. UTX and LMT both have strong positions, we
think, as well, given UTX’s J-2X and RS-68 engine positions and LMT’s CEV
role.
■
European Space Agency (ESA): For perspective, we include an overview
of the ESA’s budget on pages 23-25.

Table of Contents
Pg. 3 Introduction – From Shuttle to Constellation
Pg. 4 Historic NASA Budget Overview
Pg. 5 Top-Level Budget Outlook
Pg. 7 Science Mission Directorate (SMD) Overview
Pg. 12 Exploration Systems Directorate (ESMD) (Project Constellation)
Project Orion CEV; CLV, etc.
Pg. 19 Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD)
Pg. 20 Space Operations Mission Directorate (SOMD)
Space Shuttle, International Space Station (ISS)
Pg. 23 European Space Agency (ESA) Budget Break-Out
Pg. 26 Appendix & Detailed Industry Participation Charts

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