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Contents
Utilities, IPPs & Renewables – Overweight 4
Quarterly Review: Rapidly Changing Relative Fundamentals 4
Share Impact, 2007 EPS Growth, and Valuation 8
Rating Changes in Q4/07 15
Bullish Interest Rate Outlook 15
2008E EPS and ROE 16
Late 2007-2008 Canadian and U.S. Economic Forecasts 16
Q4/07 Geopolitical Issues 17
Zero U.S. Savings Rate and Eroding House Values 17
Normalized Total Return Expectations Unchanged 17
Dividend Yields vs. Government Bond Yields 18
EV/EBITDA Comparison with Energy Utility Income Trusts and LPs 21
Frontier Gas Pipeline Status and Players 22
Q4/07 Energy Utility Conclusion: Overweight, Prefer Pipelines 22
Q3/07 EPS Review 23
Q3/07 Canadian EPS Summary and Observations 23
Q3/07 U.S. EPS Summary and Observations 25
Canadian versus U.S. Energy Utility Stocks 26
No Canadian or U.S. Energy Utility Taxation Changes in 2007 YTD 28
Canadian Dividend Experience 28
Credit and Financing 31
Q4/07 Canadian Credit Observations 31
Q4/07 U.S. Credit Observations 33
Q4/07 Financing/Restructuring 34
Q3/07 Financing/Restructuring 34
Q2/07 Equity Financing/Restructuring 35
Q1/07 Financing/Restructuring 35
M&A Activity 36
North American Power Market Highlights 38
U.S. Trends 38
U.S. Regulatory Overview 43
U.S. 2008 ROE and Equity Bases Remain Higher Than Canada’s 46
Canadian Regulatory Overview 47
Q4/07 Provincial Energy Developments 48
Liquefied Natural Gas Developments 60
Canada LNG 60
United States LNG Impact 61
LNG Economics and Requirements 63
LNG Summary – Sharp LNG Import Growth Assured 63
Major Gas Pipeline Projects 65
Frontier Gas Pipelines 65
Other Natural Gas Pipelines 66
Major North American Oil / Condensate / CO2 / Ethanol Pipeline Projects 67
Enbridge Pipeline Proposals Move Forward Ex Gateway 68
Condensate Pipeline Projects 68
CO2 Pipelines Gain Traction 71
Oil / Condensate / CO2 / Ethanol Pipeline Project Conclusion – Bullish 72
Nuclear Power Update 73
Canadian Nuclear Industry 73
New Nuclear Plant Features 75
Renewable Power Update – Stronger with US$100/bbl Oil 76
Guaranteed Revenue Contracts Support Canadian Renewables 77
U.S. State Renewable Mandates and Investments 78
Global Renewable Thoughts 79
Canada’s Mega-Hydro Projects through 2015 81
Small Run-of-River Projects Regional 81
Wind Power 81
Solar Power Developments 85
Geothermal Power Developments 89
Biomass 89
Tidal Power 89
Fuel Cells Losers to Date 90
Major Power Storage Developments 90
Renewable Energy Summary – Remain Very bullish 91
Q4/07 Kyoto Update 92
Bali Conference Highlights 92
Clean Technology Transfer Agreed to in Round 2 94
U.S. Kyoto Update 95
Global Kyoto Update 96
The Risk of Doing Nothing 96
Global Warming Facts 97
Carbon Trading Soaring / CO2 Capture 99
Renewable Power and Kyoto Conclusions 101
Appendix 1 – Canadian Energy Utilities & Pipelines – Forecasts and Recommendations 103
Appendix 2 – High Yielding Energy Utilities’ and Pipelines’ Share Price Performance,
Dividend Yields, and P/E Ratios 105
ATCO Ltd. 106
Canadian Utilities Ltd. 107
Emera Inc. 108
Enbridge Inc. 109
Fortis Inc. 110
TransAlta Corporation 111
TransCanada Corporation 112
S&P/TSX Composite Index 113
Appendix 3 – Tax Rates for Dividends and Interest 114
Appendix 4 – Provincial Energy and Conservation Initiatives 115
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