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雷达卡
The memory capex binge appears to be
over. SEAJ data through May shows a
decline in orders for wafer processing
equipment and a gradual uptrend in
orders for test and inspection
equipment
Having seen margins collapse, NAND
flash and DRAM makers are likely to
keep a close eye on capacity expansion
until those margins are rebuilt
Equipment orders appear to have hit
bottom in the June quarter, but year-onyear
comparisons are likely to remain
difficult through March 2008
On a six-month view, the bad news
appears to be discounted
Seasonal demand, more memory per
box and per handheld device, and
higher DRAM and NAND flash prices
should lift share prices in the second
half of the year
We have Overweight (V) ratings on
Tokyo Electron, ULVAC, Hitachi High-
Tech, Canon and Advantest; Neutral (V)
ratings on Dainippon Screen and
Yokogawa Electric; and an Underweight
(V) rating on Nikon
目录
Summary 3
Demand slowing down 3
Competitive dynamics 3
Recommendations 4
Industry Outlook 7
The binge is over 7
Other sources of growth 7
Tokyo Electron example 7
Data through May 10
SEAJ data for May 10
Tokyo Electron (8035) 15
Share price & valuation 15
Risks & catalysts 15
Dainippon Screen (7735) 17
Share price & valuation 17
Risks & catalysts 17
Hitachi High-Tech (8036) 19
Share price & valuation 19
Risks & catalysts 19
ULVAC (6728) 21
Share price & valuation 21
Risks & catalysts 21
Canon (7751) 23
Share price & valuation 23
Risks & catalysts 23
Nikon (7731) 25
Share price & valuation 25
Risks & catalysts 25
Advantest (6857) 27
Share price & valuation 27
Risks & catalysts 27
Yokogawa Electric (6841) 29
Share price & valuation 29
Risks & catalysts 29
Disclosure appendix 31
Disclaimer 33
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