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We remain wedded to the view that the
USD will ultimately determine gold
prices; although currently under
pressure, we believe the likelihood of a
USD recovery later this year holds the
prospect of eventually drawing precious
metals lower
The most important recent development
in the precious metals market is the
power crisis in South Africa, which has
interrupted mining operations and
which, based on our estimates, will
visibly alter the supply/demand
balances for gold and (especially)
platinum this year
We estimate silver and palladium will
both remain in surplus in 2008
Revising our price forecasts
Gold: We are raising our forecast for 2008 to USD850/oz,
from USD825/oz, and for 2009 to USD725/oz, from
USD650/oz. We are also introducing a 2010 forecast of
USD650/oz, while our long term forecast is unchanged at
USD600/oz
Silver: We are leaving our 2008 forecast unchanged at
USD14.00/oz, but raising our 2009 forecast to USD13.50/oz,
from USD11.00/oz, our new 2010 forecast is USD12.75/oz
and our long term forecast is now USD11.00, up from
USD9.00/oz
Platinum: We are raising our forecast for 2008 to USD
1,650/oz, from USD1,550/oz, our 2009 forecast to
USD1,525/oz, from USD1,350; our new 2010 forecast is
USD1,475/oz, and our long term forecast is raised to
USD1,325/oz, from 1,250/oz
Palladium: We are leaving our 2008 and 2009 forecasts
unchanged at USD360/oz and USD340/oz, respectively; our
new 2010 forecast is USD320/oz and our long term forecast
is unchanged at USD315/oz.
目录
introduction 3
HSBC gold outlook 6
Silver 27
Platinum 36
Palladium 42
Disclosure appendix 46
Disclaimer 47
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