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【出版时间及名称】：2010年全球贵金属行业展望
【作者】：TD newcrest
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：77
【目录或简介】：
2010/11 Precious Metals Preview: Support
for Gold Remains Intact
We remain positive on gold’s medium to longer-term outlook. The fundamental
factors that have underpinned the 9-year bull market for gold remain fully intact in
our view, including: Central banks are likely to continue to be net buyers of gold
as emerging economies look to diversify their reserve holdings, investment
demand for gold (at the institutional and retail level) should remain strong as
individuals look to diversify their positions, questions remain about the long term
viability of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency, continued improvement
in the US economic situation could lead to accelerated inflation fears, gold mine
supply remains challenged over the longer term, and: A recovering economy is
likely to lead to increased demand for labour and materials further challenging the
cost base to produce an ounce of gold.
Equities discounting US$900/oz gold price - Since mid-September, gold has
gained 8% while equities have fallen 9% opening up a valuation gap. The long
term relationship implies that the equities are discounting a US$900/oz long term
gold price and are approximately 22% undervalued relative to bullion.
Our target prices remain largely unchanged; we have incorporated TD
Newcrest’s updated base metal price forecasts into our models. Our gold price
forecasts remain unchanged and we have increased our silver price forecast
slightly.
Top Picks - We have raised Goldcorp to a BUY from Hold – following a 12%
decline in the share price over the past week, we believe that the shares represent
attractive value. We are maintaining our BUY on Barrick Gold, we believe that it
is inexpensive at current levels. Among the intermediate producers we prefer
Iamgold, Red Back and Centerra. Within the junior gold companies we like
Exeter and Comaplex.
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