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‘That’s ours!’ The growth of resource
n ationalism in commodities markets
Trade barriers for commodities are becoming more common
There are growing stresses occurring in commodities markets as an increasing
number of nations are moving to protect and/or subsidise domestic markets,
increase taxes/royalties or regulate pricing regimes for domestic industry and/or
move to more aggressively acquire foreign resources.
Agriculture and energy most impacted
Markets most impacted by resource nationalism are those where pricing increases
or shortages are being felt most acutely by domestic populace or where future
economic growth is threatened.
Politics tends to exacerbate inflationary pressures
Political action is usually reactive and protectionist, this has a tendency to reduce
global trade and lower supply-side growth incentives. The former creates tighter
near-term market conditions as availability falls, the latter’s impact is felt longerterm.
Commodity preferences
Expectations for continued – and perhaps heightened – political pressures impacts
our commodity preferences which include: Oil, fertilisers, soybeans, corn,
platinum, steel, coal and copper.
Contents page
The growing role of politics 3
Summary and investment case 8
General/Index Guide 12
Portfolio Manager Guide 21
Analyst Guide 24
Trader Guide 27
Trader Guide 27
COMMODITY REVIEWS 40
Energy 41
— Crude Oil ..............................................................................................................44
— Oil Products ..........................................................................................................48
— Gasoline ...............................................................................................................52
— Middle distillates ...................................................................................................56
— US Natural Gas ....................................................................................................60
— Thermal Coal ........................................................................................................64
— Uranium................................................................................................................68
Industrial Metals 72
— Aluminium.............................................................................................................74
— Copper..................................................................................................................78
— Lead......................................................................................................................82
— Nickel....................................................................................................................86
— Tin.........................................................................................................................90
— Zinc.......................................................................................................................94
Precious metals 98
— Gold....................................................................................................................101
— Silver...................................................................................................................105
— Palladium............................................................................................................109
— Platinum..............................................................................................................113
Steel & raw materials 117
— Carbon Steel.......................................................................................................120
— Coking Coal........................................................................................................124
— Iron Ore ..............................................................................................................128
— Molybdenum.......................................................................................................132
Agriculture 136
— Corn....................................................................................................................140
— Fertilisers ............................................................................................................144
— Soybeans............................................................................................................148
— Sugar..................................................................................................................152
— Wheat .................................................................................................................156
Other Materials 160
— Cement...............................................................................................................160
— Market Pulp ........................................................................................................164
— Ethylene..............................................................................................................168
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