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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月北美大宗商品研究报告
【作者】：加拿大皇家商业银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：33
【目录或简介】：
Bulk Commodities
End of an Era - The Move to Q Pricing
Event
Upgrading iron ore and coal prices forecasts on a quarterly and annual basis
for CY10 to CY14.
Investment Opinion
• Quarterly pricing introduced for iron ore and coal: Major coal and iron
ore exporters, including BHP/BMA, Rio Tinto and Vale have succeeded in
their goal of bringing about the end of the annual benchmark pricing system
for iron ore and coking coal. Consequently, we introduce quarterly iron ore
and coal price forecasts.
• Iron ore prices:We forecast a 90% increase in Q2 2010 iron ore prices to
US$114/t FOB Australia (US184c/dmtu) in line with announced price
increases. We expect pricing to increase further in Q3 2010 to US$125/t
before beginning a steady decline as China's domestic supply response and
seasonal factors impact.
• Coal prices: We have adjusted Q2 2010 coal prices to reflect recent
settlements including US$200/t for hard coking coal, US$172/t for PCI,
US$167/t for semi-soft coking coal and US$98/t for thermal coal. We
anticipate a further strengthening of met coal prices in the Q3 due to coal
supply difficulties and forecast ~2 years of elevated prices before the
market begins to return to balance.
• Earnings upgrades, but risks are building: We upgrade earnings across
our Australian iron ore universe. Fortescue Metals (FY11 EPS+56%, FY12
EPS +20%) and Mount Gibson (FY11 EPS +51% and FY12 EPS +15%) are
the major beneficiaries of the iron ore upgrade. Similarly, earnings forecasts
for all ASX coal companies under our coverage have been increased. The
major beneficiaries are the smaller leverage names such as Caledon (FY11
EPS+63%, FY12 EPS+56%), Aquila (FY11 EPS+77%, FY12 EPS+59%)
and NEC (FY12 EPS+68%). Following very strong Q1 share price
performance across the bulk commodities space and with elevated price
settlements now priced in, we see downside risk building.
• Key Picks Iron Ore: We maintain Outperform ratings on Fortescue, Sphere
Minerals, and Gindalbie. Following its strong share price performance we
have downgraded Atlas Iron from an Outperform to a Sector Perform.
• Key Picks Coal: Coal & Allied, NEC and Caledon are rated Outperform.
Give the M&A activity around Macarthur, we expect coal equity share
prices to be well supported in the near term.
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