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Executive Summary
In this report, our ninth Off-Road Wireless Survey, we analyze data collected in our
late November/early December 2007 survey of wireless service and handset pricing
in ten Chinese cities. We previously surveyed the same cities in May 2007.
Ninth Off-Road Wireless Survey: Key Trends
1) Wireless Pricing: In our ten-city sample, incremental GSM voice pricing in the
second half of 2007 rose 7.9% half on half, while CDMA pricing rose 28.3%.
The GSM price increase was due mainly to reduced concessionary minute price
programs at China Mobile while the CDMA price rebound appeared to be due to
continued brand repositioning of CDMA.
2) Handset Pricing: We saw signs of stabilization after the big dropoff in GSM
pricing seen in our May 2007 survey. Half-on-half pricing trends were stronger
than in second-half 2006, with median GSM handset pricing up 3.1% and
CDMA pricing down 9.2% versus first-half 2007.
3) Handset Subsidies: China Mobile had significantly reduced its low-end handset
subsidies compared with our May 2007 survey: at our calculated threshold
ARPU level, low-end subscribers would only have received subsidies in three of
ten cities, down from nine in May 2007. China Unicom was providing CDMA
subsidies for low-end subscribers in nine of ten cities, up slightly from eight in
May 2007.
4) Wireless Competition: At our assumed voice usage levels, both China Mobile
and China Unicom raised prepaid GSM ARPM in second-half 2007, converging
to virtually identical pricing. Only Unicom’s postpaid GSM pricing fell
significantly half on half due to aggressive price cuts in western provinces and
Qingdao.
5) Handset Competition: Among the foreign vendors, we believe that only Nokia
maintained strong momentum in second-half 2007, while others felt the effects
of less aggressive marketing by China Mobile. There was also a noticeable
resurgence in mid- to high-end competition from a handful of local brands
including Amoi, Gionee, and Tianyu/K-Touch.
First-Half 2008 Outlook. While pricing of both services and handsets stabilized in
second-half 2007, we expect to see a renewed seasonal decline in GSM service and
handset pricing in first-half 2008. We expect to see a return of China Mobile’s lowend
GSM handset subsidies, though perhaps not to the extent seen in first-half
2007. The disruption caused by this year’s pre-Chinese New Year snowstorms and
the cancellation of Golden Week holiday may cause a slowdown in handset market
growth, especially when compared to the extremely strong sales trend seen in firsthalf
2007.
In late November and early December 2007, we traveled to ten large Chinese cities
(Beijing, Chengdu, Chongqing, Fuzhou, Guangzhou, Kunming, Nanjing, Qingdao,
Wuhan, and Xi’an) that we had also surveyed six months earlier (in May 2007). Our
survey is a quantitative and qualitative assessment of incremental trends in the
industry. While the pricing and competitive (not to mention fashion) dynamics
discussed in this report are not necessarily representative of the entire Chinese
market, we believe that our survey provides a thorough, geographically diverse, and
internally consistent analysis of wireless trends in China’s leading wireless markets.
In this survey, we recorded handset data points for 5,757 GSM models, 999 CDMA
models, and 790 PAS models, or a total of 7,546 individual handset pricing data
points. We also recorded the details of all wireless price plans and handset
promotions being offered in each locality at the time of our visits.
Wireless Pricing Survey Methodology. We surveyed all available price plans in
each market and based our ARPM estimate on what we consider to be a
representative “mainstream” price plan. We define a “mainstream” plan as one
for which the implied average revenue per user (ARPU) (assuming constant
minutes of use [MOU] and calling patterns) approximates or falls below the
market average for a given network technology (PAS, CDMA, or GSM) and
operator, given certain usage assumptions, which we have kept constant for each
of our surveys.
Handset Pricing Survey Methodology. We surveyed a representative range of
handsets (GSM, CDMA, and PAS) in each market (at multiple retailers),
recording retail pricing. While retail prices do not always directly reflect vendor
average selling prices (ASPs) due to retail and distribution markups (which we
estimate can range from 10% to 30% depending on the handset vendor and point
of sale), we think they are an excellent indicator of: 1) ASP trends; 2) the relative
affordability of each technology (especially relevant for CDMA in China); and
3) consumer preferences (i.e., for low- or high-end handsets).
This report makes a direct comparison with the pricing data from first-half 2007 (and
prior periods) published in our June 2007 Off-Road Wireless Survey VIII.1 In this
latest survey, as with previous surveys, we collected our data on wireless services and
handset pricing from a wide variety of distribution channels, including small and
large handset retailers, “mom and pop” stores, operator sales branches, and lastly, the
“gray market.” Operators surveyed included China Telecom, China Mobile, China
Unicom, and others in each market.
Table of Contents Page
Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................................................4
China Wireless Market in 2007, and 2008 Outlook ...................................................................................................7
Wireless Pricing Strengthens, China Mobile and CDMA Rise..................................................................................9
GSM Pricing Rises, CDMA Even More So .............................................................................................................11
Handset Survey: Observations and Broad Trends....................................................................................................20
Handset Pricing Analysis ........................................................................................................................................21
Chinese Handset Vendors: Revolution or Civil War?..............................................................................................29
Informal Handset Market Trends: Shuihuo, Secondhand, Knockoffs......................................................................36
Foreign Vendors: Market Bifurcation, GPS, Customization, Commoditization of Multimedia Functionality........38
China’s Handset Market: Forecasts and Driving Assumptions................................................................................52
Official Handset Data: ASP Stabilization, Fewer New Products.............................................................................59
City Notes: Custom Handsets, CDMA Trends, New Data Orientation, Unicom 156 Plans ....................................62
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