巴西通信设备行业研究报告2008年4月

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Our Brazilian Telecoms initiation and
domestic business review lead us to
change our TP for TEF (OW) to EUR24.4
(EUR26.9), PT (UW) to EUR7.40
(EUR7.52), TI (UW) to EUR1.40 (EUR1.90)
􀀗 Compared to GEM aggregates, Brazil
has modest GDP growth, weak telco
margins and a fragmented market
􀀗 Mobile is key for revenue and FCF
growth in Brazil; M&A flow may reverse
In Brazilian Telecoms, 23 April 2008, we initiate coverage on
the six main local players. In aggregate they trade at just 4.1x
2009e EBITDA, perhaps due to a discount for “Italian style”
shareholding structures, and a 9% FCFY – though this is
below the local cost of equity (and interest rates), still high
after the hyper inflation period. Our initiations of Vivo
(common shares: Overweight, TP BRL16.8; preference
shares: Overweight, TP BRL12.9), Telesp (Underweight, TP
BRL38.8) and TIM Participaçoes (common shares:
Overweight, TP BRL10.8; preference shares: Overweight, TP
BRL8.2) lead us to revise our target prices for TEF, PT and
TI. We estimate the share price sensitivity to Brazilian
Telecoms: 35% for PT (Vivo), 11% for Telefonica
(Vivo/Telesp/PT/TI) and 24% for TI (TIM).
In Telecoms Decoupling, 19 February 2008, our GEM telco
view was for above-consensus growth, doubling FCF by
2010e and a potential M&A flow reversal, with GEM telcos
beginning to look at developed market targets. The drivers
were strong GEM economic growth coupled with aboveconsensus
mobile growth sustainability, high GEM margins
with moderating capex/sales and powerful GEM players.
Brazil is unusual for GEM, with more modest GDP growth,
low margins due to mobile handset subsidies (unusual in
GEM) and fragmented players. However, we believe
telecoms have significant room to grow in Brazil, driven by
mobile. Market consolidation could help mobile margins. In
this scenario, Brazilian Telecoms 07-10e could increase FCF
CAGR to 20% from 7.5% and M&A flow direction could
potentially change to two-way Brazil-LatAm or even feasibly
Brazil-Iberia from Brazilian Telecoms being simply a

目录

2
Telecoms, Media & Technology
European Telecoms
23 April 2008
abc
EU-Brazilian Telecoms 3
Brazilian Scenarios 7
Company sections 12
Telefonica 13
Telecom Italia 18
Portugal Telecom 23
Disclosure appendix 28
Disclaimer 32

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