高盛--中国钟表零售行业研究报告2008年6月

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<p>Initiate China watch retail; Buy Peace Mark, Neutral Xinyu Hengdeli<br/>Industry context<br/>Watch retail spending is currently one of the fastest-growing discretionary<br/>spending items in China, up >40% yoy in ‘07. We expect growth in watch retail<br/>spending to continue to surpass that of overall retail spending in the coming<br/>years driven by: (1) its relatively early stage of development, (2) strong leverage to<br/>rising discretionary spending power. Per capita watch spending in China is just<br/>US$2 /yr vs. >US$28 in most developed countries. We believe China could<br/>overtake the US to become the largest consumer of Swiss-made watches by ‘15.<br/>Source of opportunity<br/>We initiate coverage on Peace Mark (PM) with a Buy rating and a 12-m DCFbased<br/>TP of HK$10 (57% potential upside), as we believe: (1) PM’s mid-high end<br/>positioning offers investors the best exposure to the overall watch retail spending<br/>in China; (2) we expect the stock’s alpha to be driven by potential synergies from<br/>its Sincere acquisition, which, we believe, has yet to be fully appreciated by the<br/>market; (3) its extended geographic reach to other parts of Asia/emerging<br/>countries has opened a new growth platform, which should allow PM to deliver<br/>superior earnings growth in a multi-year timeframe; (3) PM’s valuation of 10.3X<br/>FY09E P/E is back to its multiple before 2006, despite having structurally<br/>transformed its business profile into a retail focused company. Current valuation<br/>implies an unwarranted discount of 34% to MSCI China and 49% discount to<br/>retail peers. We initiate coverage on Xinyu Hengdeli (XH) with a Neutral rating<br/>and a 12-m DCF-based TP of HK$3.8. While XH has a stronger foothold in China’s<br/>luxury watch retail market, we feel that its high-end positioning has limited its<br/>addressable market to less than 4% of China’s current spending power. At the<br/>same time, we believe the company could continue to rely heavily on external<br/>financing as operating cash flow will likely remain negative in the near term,<br/>driven by aggressive store opening plans.<br/>Catalyst<br/>We see cross-selling synergies as the major earnings upside risk for PM.<br/>Potential news flow in obtaining further exclusivity rights could also translate into<br/>a direct catalyst for the share price.<br/>Risks<br/>1) Unexpected policy change in import/consumption tax; 2) Higher-thanexpected<br/>working capital requirement; 3) Execution risk in integration (PM). 4)<br/>Taking back of wholesale distribution rights by brand suppliers (XH).</p><p>of contents<br/>Overview: Buy Peace Mark, Neutral Xinyu Hengdeli 2<br/>Valuation: Attractive entry point for Peace Mark 3<br/>China’s watch retail: one of the fastest-growing discretionary items 9<br/>Strong leverage to rising discretionary spending power 10<br/>China could overtake US to become largest Swiss watch market 11<br/>Peace Mark (0304.HK, Buy): Best positioned to China watch retail market 13<br/>Xinyu Hengdeli (3389.HK, Neutral): Pure luxury play 27<br/>Disclosures 34<br/>EXPECTED</p><p></p><p> 220542.pdf (441.81 KB, 需要: 3 个论坛币)

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高盛--中国钟表零售行业研究报告2008年6月
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