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瑞银（UBS）研报：全球银行业分析——不断增加的信用风险 08.06.16
英文pdf，29页
Macro uncertainties
Concerns over asset quality have increased further in recent weeks given rising
macro uncertainties especially in the US in terms of economic growth prospects,
heightened global inflationary pressures (that have dramatically changed interest
rate expectations), and from higher unemployment.
Asset quality
Credit problems continued to be highest in the US with attention now shifting to
home equity loans from subprime mortgages. Within Europe, credit concerns
remained highest in the UK, Ireland, Spain and Denmark, largely reflecting
excesses in property markets. Elsewhere, credit risks were rising, although more
modestly.
Earnings risks
With mark-to-market write-downs coming closer to an end, we believe credit
problems and associated bad debt charges currently represent the key risk factor to
sector earnings. A sensitivity analysis showed that a 20bp rise in credit costs would
lower global banks’ 2008E EPS growth from 4.2% to -6.4%.
Investment strategy
Sector earnings visibility in the near term will remain poor while macro newsflow
will likely get worse before it gets better, weighing on market sentiment. Given
concerns over rising home equity loans, we remove Wells Fargo from our global
banks preferred list, replacing it by State Street (reflecting its strong underlying
franchise, solid core business and successful capital raising).
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[此贴子已经被作者于2008-6-17 19:44:30编辑过]
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